It is a good time to be a Flyers fan simply because they are more enjoyable than any other team in the city. The Phillies have lost the city’s faith. Winning the Super Bowl couldn’t pacify Eagles fans. The Sixers are getting their liver eaten daily as punishment for daring to steal fire from the NBA gods. The Flyers are simply going to play hockey this season with no expectations. Sure, we want he team to do well and players to improve, but if they don’t, that’s fine too. I’m not going to lie, it is a welcome relief.
Best Case Scenario
I think we are all ready to see playoff hockey again, right? We aren’t thinking the Flyers are going to win the division or anything but maybe sneak into the last playoff spot to have to face Carolina or Florida in Round 1. That would be enough to see the younger guys on the team get a taste of the playoff race and to actually see the tournament for the first time since the Covid season. It has been too long.
It’s possible too, not some pipe dream. The biggest change year over year is the addition of new coach Rick Tocchet. Actually, let’s call it the subtraction of John Tortorella. The guy was a wacko who publicly antagonized and alienated his players. Just bringing in a normal hockey guy has to be a relief for players like Matvei Michkov and Sean Couturier, the regular targets of the Torts-ure.
Michkov scored 26 goals last year despite being a rookie and regularly having his ice time killed by his coach. He is the great Russian hope for this team, the star they have been missing since Giroux’s prime and maybe earlier. If the Flyers are going to make the playoffs it is because Michkov has made a leap in year 2. Think top 20 in the league in scoring.
The best way of him getting there is with a rejuvenated Trevor Zegras. The center was having a bad time in Anaheim (probably because the team was poisoned by Cutter Gauthier) and was moved for very little in the offseason. Zegras looked poised for stardom after back-to-back 60+ point seasons at age 20 and 21, but has struggled with injury and opportunity ever since. The Flyers are banking on a fresh start for the creative table setter. Zegras and Michkov won’t start on the same line but will hopefully become tag team champs eventually.
Of course, it will take more than two guys to make this team successful. Vets like Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett both fell off last year in terms of goal scoring. Hopefully with a more stable situation from a coaching standpoint, these two can get back the 17 goals they lost from the previous season and perhaps more. There is no reason both can’t be 30 goal scorers.
On defense, Travis Sanheim has steadily improved throughout the year and has even played high quality minutes for Team Canada lately. The thought is that this will have an NBA/Olympics effect where playing with higher quality teammates under higher quality circumstances makes for a higher quality player. The hope is that Jamie Drysdale will seize the other slot after coming over from Anaheim. It certainly helps that Zegras is literally his best friend in the world.
Then there are all the young guys. Cam York, Tyson Foerster, and Noah Cates were all signed to nice extensions this offseason and are expected to play complimentary roles. Jett Luchanko made the team out of camp again and will hopefully stick this time. Denver Barkley and Oliver Bonk are both with the Phantoms but will likely make their debuts at some point this season. The team desperately needs one of them to flash starter potential.
If most of that goes right, we could sniff the playoffs. Hell, it was only 2 years ago that only a late season collapse had us on the outside looking in. Considering all that went wrong with Torts last year, this team could be much closer to making the tournament than most would think.
Not the Worst Case Scenario
As has been the story for the last decade, the Flyers need more high-end talent. The only place they are really going to get that is through the draft. Not making the playoffs means at least a lottery shot at getting the next all world hockey prospect Gavin McKenna. Barring some wunderkind taking the spot from him, McKenna will be the top pick in the draft after destroying the WHL last year with 129 points in 56 games and is expected to do more of the same for Penn State this season. I’m not going to pretend I know anything about anyone else in this draft, but for a good preseason look at the rest of the Draft field, check out Steven Ellis at Daily Faceoff.
It is certainly possible that the Flyers stumble due to bad goaltending, injuries, or just some talent not regaining their previous form. If that’s the case, landing McKenna is a much better outcome than making the playoffs. The problem is that it will take a lot of luck any way you look at it. A bottom 6 finish in the standings gives at least a 7.5% chance of the top pick. If the season starts to get away from us, everyone should take their daily spins over at Tankathon.
If more of the above goes wrong than goes right, moves at the deadline could further take the Flyers out of contention and bury the team in the lottery standings. This isn’t exactly a bad thing.
Outlook at the Deadline
When your team isn’t ready for primetime like the Flyers, the best day of the year is the trade deadline. Danny Briere likes to deal too. So, who is possibly on the block assuming we are not very competitive?
The Flyers balance sheet is flooded with big deals with no movement clauses. Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett, and Travis Sanheim are all on the books for 5+ years at $6m+. Luckily the salary cap is going up because these deals are all slowly aging poorly. If any were to agree to be moved, the Flyers would have to take significant salary back to cover the deals. While that probably isn’t a problem, the return would have to be worth our while. They will not move these guys just to move them since they are still productive players and we are no longer in cap hell.
Some of the actual trade candidates include:
- Rasmus Ristolainen – He is currently injured, but seems to be on the verge of being moved every year. He has two $5m seasons ahead of him. They would love to shed that money going into next offseason
- Nick Seeler – another piece of perpetual trade bait, Seeler is making 2.7m over the each of the next 3 years. He would provide cheap help on the blue line to teams in need and at 32 does not fit any Flyers timeline.
- Christian Dvorak – The center signed for $5.4m to rejoin his old coach Rick Tocchet. This deal screamed of a trade piece the minute it was signed. Dvorak i a defense first center known for winning his faceoffs, a dependable piece for a playoff team.
- Garnet Hathaway – Hathaway’s lovely name should be ignored because he is the bruiser type. He is routinely at the top of the penalty and hit categories and his under contract for the next 2 years at $2.4m. If a team is need of his particular set of skills, expect him to be gone.
The idea is to move as much money off of next year’s books as possible or get as much draft equity as the team can…maybe even both. I’m sure they will pick a direction to prioritize, but we don’t know what that is yet. As of right now, there is about $46m to spend next off season.
Prediction
It feels like the Flyers will get a bump from the Tocchet hire just from getting away from the Torts ecosystem. The guy was poison and he infected everyone. Of course, it is for that reason we have Porter Martone waiting in the wings, so it wasn’t a total loss. For this year, we should be right around the playoff cut off with some crucial games to be played down the stretch. After finishing right around .500, a more optimistic team will hit the ice next year with all of this year’s seeds flowering and free agent money to spend for the first time in forever. Enjoy this season for what it is…just hockey. Nothing more, nothing less.
All stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com. All contract info courtesy of Spotrac.com
Philly Front Office 
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