How in the world are we supposed to feel about the 2025-26 Sixers? No one can actually feel good about the team, especially with the recent Quentin Grimes / luxury tax fiasco and the bleak health outlooks for Paul George and Joel Embiid. However, being a Debbie Downer doesn’t make much sense either considering the youth movement on the team and at least the possibility of a more trim and agile looking Joel Embiid actually playing this year. Then again, we are not likely a championship contender and we probably will not have a lottery pick. This is NBA purgatory (exactly where we sought to avoid when The Process started). What to do?
I have a little bit better plan than “aim for the bushes.”1 I thought about breaking down Sixers articles with either a Pessimixers or Optimixers tag, but those sounded much better in my head before it went to my keyboard. Instead, I figure we should work on our expectations. Instead of basically writing two articles at once every time, I figure we should aim for the middle at least to start the season. By God, there is a way to cover this team and I’m going to find it!
Framing
What is a good and realistic outcome for the team? Before we get there, there are two things to know. First, the team’s first round pick is owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder and is Top-4 protected. Second, the East is wide open with New York, Cleveland, and maybe even Orlando or Atlanta being the best teams. All have big problems though. This means that, if you squint, there is room for the Sixers in either spot, even if it’s not practical.
Finishing with one of the 3 worst records in the league only gives you a 52.1% chance of getting a Top-4 pick. The Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets already have two of these spots locked down. They are not only not trying to win this year but will likely trade away whatever veteran talent they have to aid that pursuit. The Hornets and Wizards are next on the list, but both of those teams should be at least trying to win this season. A decently healthy and somewhat competent Sixers roster should not be able to bottom out better than those 4 regardless.
The only way the Sixers are making a run at the top of the regular season standings is with incredible health and competence. These are two things that should NEVER be taken for granted with Philadelphia basketball. The 4 teams mentioned above are all bigger, faster, and more talented. They also aren’t nearly as injury prone or competence averse. After them, Boston and Detroit should round out the Top-6.
So, it’s possible to finish in the bottom 4 and it’s possible to finish in the Top-6, but neither is very likely. Where does that leave us? Competing for a spot in the play-in. That’s fine. If we make the playoffs and Joel Embiid and Paul George are actually healthy, well that’s fantastic! At full strength, we would have a shot against anyone regardless of seed. However, if Embiid and George are pretty clearly not healthy or effective, then a tail off to the back end of the lottery is fine too. As we saw last year, having the worst record is not guarantee of luck with the ping pong balls. Landing in either spot is fine for this year.
For right now, just get to the play-in games. That’s the goal.
Development
The Sixers feature several young talents for the first time in years. VJ Edgecombe, Jared McCain, and even Justin Edwards give the team a level of hope for the future. Them developing and flashing high upside performance, is something to look forward to even in losses.
Again, we will not likely be challenging for a top seed in the East. Before Nick Nurse and Doc Rivers were motivated to keep their young players on the bench, sacrificing development for better play. That is not the case this year. Playing Edgecombe and McCain through their troubles next to the veterans is a situation that should really help. They will learn the life of a role player with the safety net of experienced teammates and the long leash to let it fly if they are feeling good. Young players on other teams will either get thrown into the fire or kept cold in the shed. For the first time in maybe my lifetime, the Sixers should be a place for young players to be treated fairly and given a legitimate opportunity to thrive.
Hope for McCain and Edgecombe to each get around 25 minutes per game and to work through slumps and growing pains.
Embiid’s Health
Cheering for health! Encourage load management, non-consecutive missed games, and minutes restrictions! These are your new saviors! I’m sorry, but this is what it has come to. We don’t want Embiid to play every day, we want him to make it to the end of the season. That’s what matters.
Wanting him to play every day is how we get ourselves disappointed and how he gets hurt. The Sixers have 14 sets of back-to-back games this season and we shouldn’t expect Embiid to play in any of them. That brings his season total down to 68 right off the bat. Will he play 68 games? No chance. There are also around nine 3 games in 5 days stretches that will likely see him sit. Assuming no significant injuries (which is a pretty big assumption), that’s 59 games this season.
Over his career, Joel averages around 32 minutes per game. Let’s hope he is getting more rest this year, let’s say averaging around 28 and only going over 30 in rare cases. There is no reason to try to win any games at all this season by sacrificing Embiid. It doesn’t matter what he has to say about it or how Nurse feels, it is imperative that they stick to a plan with Joel no matter what.
Of course, there is a chance that no matter how he’s handled, Embiid doesn’t play 40 games and flames out so spectacularly that we are talking medical retirement again, but let’s not have that in the forefront right now. Hope for less than 30 minutes per game and around 55 games total.
Paul George
George is in his 15th NBA season. He’s 35 years old. Please do not think of him as a star who will take over games. That part of his career is over. However, he can still be a solid rotational player. He is tall, long, and knows what he’s doing. Yes, we overpaid and is not the person we thought we were getting, but there is nothing we can do about that now.
His shooting was down last year, but he also had something called Mallet Finger. It wasn’t on his shooting hand, but there’s no way that was comfortable to play with. I am optimistic about his shooting overall because even his free throw percentage was down last year. George shot 91% from the line the year before but was down to 81% last year. If that had stayed the same with only his other percentages going down, it would be a red flag. Everything going down? That seems like the injury talking.
We just want George to be a 3 and D guy for the most part. If he can carve out a connectivity role that does what the team needs while letting Maxey and McCain actually run things, he should not only help his overall health, but will end up being a winning basketball player through the remainder of his contract.
Maybe trading him for other smaller bad contracts is the ideal endgame, but let’s keep it to around 30 minutes per game and solid shooting for now.
Trades
Let’s start with the one guy that will probably not be traded, Quentin Grimes. Because he signed his qualifying offer, he not only has a no-trade clause but an acquiring team will not hold his Bird Rights. The Sixers still have the ability to sign him to the biggest contract in the offseason. He is sticking around.
Kelly Oubre and Andre Drummond, however, are not long for this team. The Sixers are around $8m over the tax line and Oubre makes around $8m. The minute the Sixers get an offer for him that does not include taking salary back, they will make the trade. The hope is that they do not have to pay to get off the deal as well. That’s possible. For Drummond though, no one wants his $5m salary. They are going to have to pay at least a 2nd to get off the deal. Of course, combined they are around $13m in matching salary and that’s worth something too. It will depend on how the team is doing.
I don’t think there’s a world where Joel Embiid gets traded. He is either good and valuable to the team or injured and not valuable to another team. There is no in between. He simply makes too much for another team to risk giving up too much value to acquire him.
Paul George might be different though. I would not hold out hope that the team could get something big for him or even a 1st round pick, but it would be possible to not trade him at a loss. What about trading him for other bad contracts? Not saying that they would do this, but the Miami Heat could trade Andrew Wiggins and Terry Rozier for George. He would be an upgrade over both and would cost less this season. He does have one more year of contract than Wiggins though. Something like that would be of interest to get off the final year of George’s deal while having more manageable trade pieces.
Get the idea of trading either George or Embiid for negative value out of your head. It doesn’t make sense. Giving up something of value for a team that would need to rebuild without them doesn’t make any sense. I know we all want a quick fix, but purgatory is where we are headed and there is not stopping that trip. It’s fine. While trading one of them at a deficit gives us money to spend, it would be at the expense of a future asset. Plus, who would we be spending that money on anyway?
What this team does have is draft picks (despite not having one this season). If someone becomes available, the Sixers are going to be in on the deal. They have 8 2nd rounders and up to 3 first round picks to trade. They also have a 2028 first round pick from the Clippers which has the possibility of being VERY juicy. The problem is going to be matching salary in any deal. This is where trading Paul George for other bad contracts may become imperative.
Your 2025-26 Sixers!
This is a no stress situation. Player development is the primary goal this season with the playoffs being a nice but welcome bonus. Nothing more. If we don’t get our hopes up, they can’t let us down.
- You need to watch The Other Guys ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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