It was widely reported yesterday that Phillies manager Rob Thomson will be returning to manage the team next year. Despite technically being non-news, this is a bit of a stunner. After the Phillies lost again in the NLDS, it was largely expected by the fanbase that the team would part ways with Topper in an effort to change the identity of the team and rid itself of some bad bullpen decisions. That’s not happening. But why?
I was racking my brain yesterday trying to think of a good reason for him coming back. The most obvious is that the Phillies have been very, very good under Thomson in the regular season. For all of his defenders, his record of 346-251 is the ace up their sleeve. Plus, he rescued an otherwise underachieving team from the stubborn hell of Joe Girardi. With that sterling record of regular season success comes something more though…attendance. This was my light bulb.
The Phillies saw well over 3m fans come through the gates of Citizen’s Bank Park this season, an average of over 41,000 per night. This figure was roughly the same as last year and up about 3000 per game from 2023. Back in 2022 though, the last season of Girardi and first for Thomson, attendance was barely over 2m. In the dark ages of the 2010s, it was even worse. If you look back to the halcyon days of 2007-2011, it was a packed house every time. Not surprisingly, attendance and team record are tied together.
Why does this matter? Fans spend money. A lot of money. The cheapest ticket will run you around $35. Let’s just say the average comes to $60 considering different sections. That’s close to $200m in just gate revenue this season. Fans buy way more than tickets though. Granted the team doesn’t get all the revenue, but between food, beer, hats, and souvenirs, that’s probably another $30 per person, or $100m. That revenue dips by over $90m with 1m less fans. As I write this, I realize these estimates are probably low.
John Middleton wants a winner, there is no disputing that. Despite his $4b net worth and declarations to spend stupid money, billionaires aren’t exactly known for their desire to lose money. If we want him to spend $300m+ every year on payroll, the team needs to be generating that kind of money too. I think that is an easy concept to understand even if we fans bristle at the thought. He needs to keep this mint printing.
The alternative to Rob Thomson is an unknown. The Phillies have been bit with some less than ideal managerial hiring choices over the last few years. Before Girardi it was Gabe Kapler, Pete Mackanin, and Ryne Sandberg. Granted those teams were less talented, but those teams underachieved big time. With Thomson, the Phillies know what they are getting: a guy who steers the ship in the right direction, makes good time, and gets you where you need to be. He can navigate the choppy seas of a regular season just fine. Unfortunately, after the ship docks, he doesn’t seem to know where he is and trips down the gangway. Without the benefit of a larger sample size, his decisions in the playoffs are often incorrect.1 Is that ok?
For the team and the fear of an underachieving regular season that tanks attendance, yes, that’s ok. Maybe a team hovering around .500 most of the season does not spark the interest in the fans the same way. All of a sudden people aren’t going to the games, aren’t buying 2 beers and a dog, and don’t want that extra $40 hat they don’t need. If attendant dips, then revenue dips too. Would less revenue mean less payroll the following year? We don’t know for sure, but it wouldn’t exactly be unexpected.
One final thought. This Phillies team is surprisingly built for sustainability. With the way the team has held on to its top prospects despite having Trader Dave Dombrowski at the helm, it tells me that they know they need to have a plan for the next generation. They can’t stock their entire roster with free agents. Not only is there not enough inventory, but it would simply cost too much. That’s why Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, and Aiden Miller are still with the club. If they are to be integrated into the team next year, the Phillies probably want someone who is familiar with the plan and can handle the rest of the clubhouse amidst the likely turnover. If Topper can keep the ship steady while keeping the team good and bringing in rookies, then attendance stays up and the team keeps making money. For an offseason of likely change, I get it…even if I don’t like it.
Attendance numbers and stats courtesy of Baseball Reference
- I’ll give him credit for the Aaron Nola/Ranger Suarez pitching plan, but pitching Kerkering twice in high leverage situations this year stunk of going to Craig Kimbrel twice in the 2023 NLCS and going to a cooked Jose Alvarado in the 2022 WS. ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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