Philly Front Office

Yesterday I saw Rocky IV in theaters with my kids. Ironically, this was the same time it was announced that the Phillies were picking up the $9m option on Jose Alvarado. Why is it ironic? Because last year Alvarado was suspended for PED use. Just like Ivan Drago (and Sly, you aren’t fooling anybody) adding to his villainy by being juiced up during training, this matters.

Alvarado was a revelation back in 2022 and 2023. After coming over in a trade with Tampa and LA back in 2020, he became one of the Phillis most trusted bullpen arms thanks to his ridiculous fastball. He throws a sinker than averaged 99 and could get up to 102 when he got here. It started to slip in 2023 though, going from 99.6 to 98.7. By 2024, it was down to 97.8 and his ERA was up to 4.09. While pitchers can get craftier as they get older, velocity is not exactly something that improves with age.

An Ideal and Rational Phillies Offseason

In 2025, Alvarado hit Spring Training with his 2022 fastball. All of a sudden, he was the lights out closer we thought we were missing. With a 102 mph fastball again, the questionable bullpen had a rock in its back end. Through his first 20 appearances, Alvarado had a 2.70 ERA and a 1.89 FIP showing he was subject to some bad luck. His pitching was on point, striking out 25, walking 4, and giving up only 1 HR. Unfortunately, on May 18th he was busted for PED use, claiming he did not knowingly take any supplements but accepted his 80-game ban. When he returned, he was not the same pitcher. His ERA was 7.50 and his FIP was even higher. Strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he gave up 3 HRs.

What are we getting this year? Probably the same reliever we had in 2024. Maybe a lefty specialist, but nothing more. Without the 100+ mph gas, he is not a special pitcher, he’s proven that. We are going to pay $9m to know it now too. Considering the Phillies likely have a decently hard budget at $304m, this is not nothing.

Many were expecting this move with the reason being that you don’t find pitchers with that kind of velocity for that price. The problem with that is that Alvarado does NOT have that kind of velocity. 97-98 for a reliever who relies on serious movement like Alvarado is completely different than 102. With the lost velocity there is lost movement and all of a sudden the whole arsenal doesn’t play. Alvarado at $5m makes sense, but not at $9m. Would he have received more on the open market? Maybe, but that would be someone else’s mistake.

I don’t hate Jose Alvarado. He seems like a genuinely fun person who is addicted to coffee and that’s something I can get behind. I can’t seem to shake not liking him though and it’s probably a personal thing. When he came into spring throwing 102 again, we should have known. Something like that doesn’t just happen and yet, we all ignored it. We wanted to believe that we had a great reliever again because we needed a great reliever. Then when he was busted, not speaking for all of us, I felt stupid and lied to. Because of the lie, the Phillies were in a lurch too. Granted, this led to Jhoan Duran becoming a Phillie, but still. I’m just not ready to welcome him back.

Who knows though, if I can change, and Alvarado can change…

Velocity numbers from Baseball Savant.