Philly Front Office

The MLB Offseason has officially started. Unlike past years, the Phillies have several issues that ought to keep a steady fire blazing under the hot stove. Let’s run them down and see how this might play out.

The Budget

It became pretty clear as the offseason rolled on last year that the Phillies capped themselves at the final tax threshold of $301m. They eventually went over, but not by much. This tells me that this year we should expect a similar cap at the new mark of $304m. If we get close, don’t expect any more signings even if we still have gaping holes to fill.

HOWEVER… Two offseasons ago, the Phillies were prepared to drop $32.5m+ per season on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Two years before that, they splurged on Nick Castellanos at the last minute. The Phillies will break the bank in only two situations, breaking into the Japanese/Korean market or a free agent deal is seemingly too good to pass up. Don’t count on unlimited funds though.

Phillies Budget for 2026

Who is the Big Free Agent?

The Phillies have some money to spend and holes to fill in the outfield and the power department. The two biggest names out there are both named Kyle, Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies are going to be in on both. Normally, MLB free agency tends to be a series of dominos ready to fall once the first one signs. Unfortunately for the Phillies, that might not be the case this winter.

Tucker is the best outfielder on the market and will be pursued by the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies. Schwarber has the most power out there and he is expected to be pursued by the Mets, Red Sox, Reds, and Phillies. Do you see the problem there? The Phillies are the only overlap. These two markets will be largely unaffected by each other.

The Phillies will try to play in both sandboxes at the same time against the biggest spenders in the sport. If they sign one though, they are done. On the bright side, they won’t be insulting one by coming late to the party.

There is a very possible scenario where they do not sign either. In that case, they will likely pivot to someone like Bo Bichette who creates another host of problems we’ll get to later. Then there is Pete Alonso and Japan/Korea.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

Catcher

I cannot stress enough how important it is for the Phillies to sign JT Realmuto. There are ZERO options internally to rely on unless you really believe in Raphael Marchan and/or Garrett Stubb’s (and you shouldn’t). Well, with no JT, they are your platoon behind the plate.

External options? There’s really nothing there either. The Orioles have a new rookie catcher and could part with former top prospect Adley Rutschman, but he’s been pretty bad lately. Anyone else? Do you really think the Braves are going to trade us Sean Murphy? Do you really think the Dodgers are going to trade us Dalton Rushing? If it’s not JT, it’s trouble.

Will the Phillies resign JT Realmuto?

Outfield

Nik Castellanos will not be on the 2026 Philadelphia Phillies. The plan is to hopefully trade him for some kind of cash relief. His $20m salary will not be completely assumed by anyone, unless it is for an equally (or more) cumbersome contract. Every dollar we get back for Nick is more productive than simply releasing him though. Unfortunately, that’s the backup plan… lighting $20m on fire.

The only outfielder worth even close to a damn who is under contact next year is Brandon Marsh and he’s nothing better than a strong side platoon. If he’s traded, I wouldn’t be upset.

Justin Crawford will likely be a corner outfielder next year out if spring training. He has his flaws, but he is also going to make the minimum. This team needs to save money where it can and he’s the best way to do it.

This leaves a need of at least 1.5 OFs. Harrison Bader and Kyle Tucker are possibilities for center and right, but so is the trade market. The Anaheim Angels have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell who both make sense in our outfield.

Trading Nick Castellanos

3rd Base

It was no secret that Alec Bohm was on the trade market last year. He now has just one season of control left and there’s been no rumor of a possible contract extension. Other than the outfield, this is the best position to upgrade the team. Bohm can hit for a decent enough average, but his power and plate discipline is total trash. He is also set to make $10m+ in arbitration. That’s just too much for what he does not bring to the table.

A big reason there’s been no extension talk is because of top prospect Aiden Miller. The shortstop ended the season hot and has no position open on the big club right now. He is the future at either 2nd or 3rd. While people might want a splash name like Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette, 3rd might seem like the best place for a stopgap like Yoan Moncada until Miller is ready. Again, starting a rookie is a great way to save money.

If no one wanted Bohm last year, there’s good reason to believe no one wants him in a trade this year. Granted, this could have been because the Phillies were asking for too much. This season, they’d probably be happy with the salary relief plus a Brandon Marsh level outfielder or a reliever.

Just throwing this out there. It would not be surprising if they simply cut him rather than pay him.

Japan and Korea

I want to go deeper on this topic in the future, but the Phillies are trying hard to break into the Japanese and Korean markets. They tried to throw money and Yamamoto, but LA was simply too good an opportunity. This year, that might be a little different. There are several Japanese and Korean players expected to be posted this offseason. Dombrowski is going to try his hardest to get one of them, just to open the door to the future. Here is a quick rundown of the possible targets, though only Murakami and Takahashi have been officially posted so far.

• Munetaka Murakami – power hitting 1B/DH is going to sign for more than any hitter ever. Losing out on Schwarber will open the possibility of Murakami in Philly. LOTS of strikeouts though.
• Kazuma Okamoto – He’s a 29-year-old OF/1B/DH who could interest the Phillies with or without Schwarber. Power and plate discipline are his game, though the power is tailing off.
• Kona Takahashi – Takahashi will be 29 and coming off just an ok year in Japan. After looking like a high end starter prospect, he is now looking at more of a backend starter or reliever type.
• Tatsuya Imai – At 27, Imai just had absurd season with a 1.50 ERA. He’s a short righty starter with superb control and could be looking to sign for around $100m+ over 5 years.
• Sung Mun Song – 29-year-old lefty infielder who broke out the last two years with high averages, improved power, and better walk rates while keeping an average strikeout rate.

Bullpen

Right now, it’s Duran as the closer with Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Tanner Banks, and Orion Kerkering. For once there are a few rookies out there like Alex McFarlane and Gabe Craig to possibly come up, but this pen needs serious help. There isn’t a guy you’d feel comfortable with giving the ball to in the 8th inning. I’m not saying they need to go out and sign Edwin Diaz, but they need to find someone reliable.

Rookies

For the first time in as long as I can remember, the Phillies have minor league talent reay to contribute at the big league level. We’ve talked about Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford already and you know about Andrew Painter, but you might not have heard of Keaton Anthony and Gabriel Rincones. Anthony is an outfielder who tore up AA and AAA this season and could be in the mix in case everything goes wrong in the OF. Rincones cannot hit lefties even a tiny bit, but he could be used as a platoon guy if, again, everything goes wrong.

An Ideal and Rational Phillies Offseason

Extensions?

• Jesus Luzardo – Everyone is dismissing the possibility of Ranger Suarez coming back because of Luzardo. Well, Luzardo only has one year of control remaining. Right now, they would probably get similar contracts in free agency despite being nearly opposite types of pitchers. Expect the Phillies to engage both this offseason while only keeping one long term.
• Bryson Stott – Stott has 2 years of control left. I don’t know if he is a long-term piece with the Phillies, but if both sides have an inclination to continue their relationship, now would be the time to discuss it. He is a Scott Boras client though and Boras guys rarely sign extensions.
• Justin Crawford – Pre-debut extensions are all the rage lately and Crawford fits the bill much more than Boras client Andrew Painter.

Bryce Harper

Non issue.

You want more? There are no more old thinking minds in baseball than Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras. They know each other and know everything about each other. Neither would put the name Bryce Harper in their mouth without having a reason. This is about an extension that is not happening this offseason.