Philly Front Office

Thanks to the Dodgers last two championships and Shohei Ohtani being the most unbelievable baseball talent ever, Japanese baseball players are having a moment right now. As of right now, 3 of the top stars in Japana have been posted with another likely on the way. Additionally, 1 Korean player will likely make his way over as well. Let’s take a look at each player, find salary comparables, and see if we can find a good match for their services stateside.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami is the one everyone has been talking about since the last World Baseball Classic 3 years ago. He is a 25-year-old lefty masher destined to set the record for highest priced hitter out of Japan. At age 19, he hit 36 HRs and the legend was born. Leading up to the last classic, Murakami put up one of the best seasons in Japanese history with a 56 HR, 134 RBI clinic that also saw him hit .318 with 118 walks to 128 strikeouts. Since then though, the shine has come off a bit. He has not hit that HR height again, while his walks have come down and the strikeouts have gone up. Injuries limited him to only 69 games last year, but he seemed to get back on track with 24 HRs and a .286 average while cutting back on the Ks. Though he has played 3rd and 1st in Japan, basically every talent evaluator says 3rd is right out with his long-term position likely being DH.

There has never been someone of Murakami’s talents to come from Japan before. About the closest comparable you can find is Hideki Matsui joining the Yankees in 2003. While Matsui had the power, he also had the plate discipline that Murakami lacks. However, Matsui was 29 when he came over compared to Murakami turning 26 this winter. Back then, Japanese contracts had not yet boomed leaving Matsui to sign only a 3/$21m deal. One thing to know, he will easily pass other recent Japanese hitter contracts for Masataka Yoshida (5/$90m) and Seiya Suzuki (5/$85m).

Strangely, one of the big spending teams that will likely not bid on Murakami is the Dodgers. Between Freddie Freeman¹ at first and Ohtani at DH, they simply do not have room for him. The Yankees and Mets both make sense depending on what happens with Pete Alonso. If the Mets bring him back, they could still sign him as a DH, but that is likely Soto’s long-term position and probably no longer a fit. That would allow the Yankees to stop their habit of signing past their prime veteran 1st basemen. If the Yankees try to burn the Mets for Alonso, then I wouldn’t doubt Murakami ends up in Queens (unless they want to burn the Phillies instead). MLBTradeRumors has the Angels, Padres, and Mariners as potential fits, but the Padres can’t add any more big contracts and the Mariners simply won’t. In my book, if it isn’t one of the NY teams, then it will be the Red Sox signing him to a 7/$175m deal. The Phillies could enter the sweepstakes if Schwarber decides to leave. The deadline for him to sign is December 23.

…Schwarber Loves Us Not

Tatsuya Imai

Tatsuya Imai was officially posted today (November 19) which means he has until January 3 to sign a deal. Evaluators have him as a level below other recent Japanese imports like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki, but that still make him a solid mid rotation option with upside for more. After all, he did just have his best season as a pro going 163 innings of 1.92 ERA ball. It was his 4th time in 5 years 150+ innings and a sub 2.50 ERA.

Physically, Imai is not imposing. The soon to be 28-year-old is 5’11 and only 154 pounds. That type of frame does not typically age well and will likely scare teams off of a longer-term deal. Despite the frame, he sits in the upper 90s. From what I’ve read, the smaller body actually helps with his pitch deception.

Yamamoto signed a 10/$325m contract 2 years ago. It featured an all-out bidding war with some reports claiming the Phillies actually offered even more money. Imai is not going to get that kind of deal. He will however beat the 6/$60m contract of Yu Darvish back in 2012 and the 5/$75m of Kodai Senga back in 2023. Senga was 30 when he came over, so expect another year and more money for Imai. Scott Boras will claim he is the next Yamamoto, but no one is buying that. Considering what the Dodgers just did and their involvement in this negotiation along with all the heavy hitters, Imai will likely be looking at $30m per season for 5-7 years. Let’s split the difference and say 6/$180m with…let’s go with the Cubs for some reason.

Kazuma Okamoto

While Munetaka has stolen the headlines, the best hitter in Japan consistently over the last 8 years has been Kazuma Okamoto. He is a right hander with solid power and a great idea of the strike zone. As he has aged, his HR power has come down slightly, but along with it have come a decrease in strikeouts. His comparable is like an 85% version of Matsui. Unlike Munetaka, he IS a good fielder, winning gold gloves at 3rd base earlier in his career. There is no consensus whether he could play there long term, but he would at least be an upgrade over Alec Bohm right now. If not, he is a legitimate possibility for both 1st base and the outfield. Honestly, he is the Phillies dream.

While Okamoto can expect a bump due to inflation and being the runner up for Murakami, he is easily comparable to both Suzuki and Yoshida at the plate, but a better fielder. The Dodgers will be in on him as will the Yankees and Mets, depending on where Murakami and Pete Alonso go. Okamoto is also represented by Scott Boras and will therefore likely take a legit meeting with the Phillies. With our eagerness to get into the market and need in both the outfield and possibly 3rd base, Okamoto would be the guy the Phillies are willing to bust their budget for. He should probably sign for 5/$100m but could get a bump from the market to as high as 5/$120m. I think the Phillies finally get their man. His signing deadline is 1/3.

Schwarber Loves Us…

Kona Takahashi

Kona Takahashi of the Seibu Lions has not officially been posted yet, but it has been confirmed that the official announcement will come very soon. This could have something to do with Takahashi being teammates with Imai and the strict 45-day window to sign players. The 29 year old is 6’2, 200 pounds but does not have nearly the zip on his fastball as his slighter teammate.

Takahashi is something of a wildcard, more so than his teammate. While he posted great numbers in 2022 and 23, 24 was a struggle. Then last season his numbers were better but his strikeouts were way down. It seems like he may have missed his window for a big payday.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara only recieved 2/$3.5m last season. MLBTraderumors used him as a comparison, but I can’t see Takahashi going that low. He simply has too much history of success even if his peripherals are going in the wrong direction. This is a guy with 148+ innings pitched in 4 out of 5 seasons and two near 2.00 ERA seasons. Ogasawara had nothing like that.

Back in 2019, Yusei Kikuchi received 3/$43m from the Seattle Mariners. Considering the ever-present need for starting pitching, that seems about right for Takahashi. Anything between $10m and $15m per year would probably be fair.

Sung Mun Song (Korea)

Sung Mun Song is a 29 year old lefty Korean infielder (3rd primarily but plays all over) who made huge strides at the plate 2 years ago. He went from hitting in the mid .200s to well above .300 in back-to-back years. His strikeouts have gone up, but so have his walks, HRs and doubles. He simply leveled up all over the place. This was all apparently since he missed a year for military service.

I have seen him compared to fellow countryman He-Seong Kim, but that’s a bit of a leap. Kim had a long track record of success in Korea before getting his 4/$28m deal with the Padres. Kim was also younger and while very good, did not have any seasons like the past two for Song.

Because of his ability to play 3rd base, you have to think he is in play for the Phillies, but will probably sign with an infield needy west coast team like the Dodgers. My bet is he goes to the Mariners though (unless they trade for Alec Bohm). Something around 3/$27m sounds right considering his age.

Posting System

For anyone who needs a quick refresh on the posting system, Japanese players are granted international free agency after 9 years of service time. If they are under 9 years, their teams can agree to “post” them to MLB. Once posted, players have 45 days to sign with an MLB team or go back to their team in Japan. If they are signed, the MLB club owes a posting fee to the original Japanese club. This amount is not subject to the International Bonus Pool.² The posting fee is calculated as follows:

• $25m or less – 20% of total value
• $25m to $50m – 20% up to $25m in value then 17.5% on the rest up to $50m
• More than $50m – Same as above but 15% on everything more than $50m
• Bonuses are subject to a supplemental fee of 15% if earned

The Korean posting system is slightly different. Instead of a 45-day window, a player must sign in 30 days. The posting fees are the same. However, unlike in Japan, a KBO team can only post one player per offseason.

1. Freeman is getting up there considering he will turn 37 late next season and only has 2 years left on his deal, but he is still Freddie Freeman who just had back-to-back years of a 141 OPS+ ↩︎
2. To sign a big money deal, they must be at least 25 years old or be subject to the MLB International Bonus pool. This was how Roki Sasaki ended up without a bidding war last season. ↩︎