Philly Front Office

I know what you are thinking: Part 3? WTF happened to Part 2, PFO? Well, I got excited and did a Japanese and Korean players only list that wasn’t officially Part 2, but it was in spirit. Part 1 was the top 10 names out there in free agency, so that means 15 predictions and contract profiles have been made. That leaves just enough to milk this for all it is worth with a third part. Hopefully this is better than Ant Man 3 or any other awful final chapters in a trilogy.

MLB Spenders

11. Eugenio Suarez – 3B/1B/DH

• Overview: Suarez is one of the premier mashers in MLB with 49 HRs last year split between Arizona and Seattle. Suarez has serious red flags though. He strikes out about 4x more than he walks, doesn’t play third base very well (but it’s passable), he’ll be 35 next summer, and consistency has never been one of his virtues. He is going to be the bargain (but still expensive version) of Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. He made $15m last year and will want a raise.
• Prediction: Someone would have to be really in need of power to think they can put Suarez at 3rd base moving forward. Who is that desperate? Well, maybe the Phillies to be honest, depending on what happens with the rest of free agency. That’s a long shot though. The Reds would be another, but only if their quest for Schwarber comes up short…which it will. Christian Walker is a reasonable comp from last year considering he got 3/$60m as a less powerful but younger and better first baseman. Suarez to the Reds at 2/$45m with a 3rd year option for $15m with a $5m buyout.

12. Michael King – SP

• Overview: King looked great last year and through the first 6 weeks of this season. Then he hit the DL twice (once for his shoulder and once for his knee) and wasn’t the same when he came back. His injury could not have come at a worse time and probably cost him close to $100m. At his best, he is a 30-year-old high end #2 starter, but also might never reach that height again. One thing missed in King’s whole transition from reliever to starter is that he went from 50 innings to 100 innings to 175 innings in 3 years. That’s when he got hurt. 30 inning increases is usually the desired model that was ignored with King. He rejected his qualifying offer, so he may come with draft pick penalties.
• Prediction: Of all the short term bounce back candidates out there, King is probably most likely to bet on himself with a shorter term deal. He might be looking at a similar 3-year deal with options that I predicted for Dylan Cease, but he might do better. I’ll go with 2/$50m with a player option for year 2 from the Diamondbacks. However, I could see him getting a 4/$110m deal from the Mets if they miss out on Imai and Dylan Cease.

13. Zac Gallen – SP

• Overview: Gallen is 30 years old and probably missed a huge payday by 1 season. Now instead of 5 out of 6 seasons with a high 2 to mid 3 ERA, he hits free agency coming off an abysmal 4.85 ERA season with a big uptick in HRs and his K% going the wrong way. Instead of an Aaron Nola type deal, he is going to see something along the lines of a Marcus Stroman style deal in the low $20ms. He rejected his qualifying offer, so he may come with draft pick penalties.
• Prediction: Gallen is looking at a mid-rotation contract rather than a front end one and will be a consolation prize for anyone who misses out on the top guys. Odds are he goes back to the Diamondbacks, but I am going to go out on a limb and say the Orioles sign him at 3/$72m.

14. Edwin Diaz – RP

• Overview: Diaz opted out of his contract with the Mets that still had 3/$48m + $10m in deferrals left on it. He is going to want to do better than that considering he was back to his old self last year and an absolute horse for the Mets despite their bullpen struggles. He only gave up 4 HRs in 66 innings with a 1.63 ERA. That’s damn good. He was already the highest paid reliever in baseball and won’t be giving up that title.
• Prediction: He isn’t going anywhere. Everyone involved knows he has the Mets by the balls and can use it to get a raise. He will be 32 years old, but is still throwing elite stuff. He goes back to Queens on a 4/$80m deal (I really want to say he signs the exact same 5/$102m contract but I don’t think David Stearns lets that happen). That gets him an extra year on his previous deal and without the deferrals.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

15. Robert Suarez – RP

• Overview: Suarez will be 35 next year. While he was incredibly good across the board, a reliever of that age is not going to get top of the market money. He’ll get close though at least over the short term.
• Prediction: Yankees give him the money they won’t give Devin Williams, 2/$36m with a team option for year 3.

16. Devin Williams – RP

• Overview: Williams was traded to the Yankees from the Brewers last season as maybe the best closer in baseball. If you look at his stats, it went badly. He started as the closer, was demoted, and never got the title back. It was not the type of platform year the 31-year-old was hoping for. Despite his season going off the rails early, his peripherals were right in line with his career norms. His K rate was the same, his walks were the same, and he didn’t give up any heightened amount of HRs. His FIP was still in his usual 2s. That makes it seem like it was the Yankees who let him down rather than him letting down the Yankees. The problem for Williams is that it looks like he blew up on the biggest stage, even if that’s not really what happened.
• Prediction: Where would something like that play? Well, somewhere with a good defense. To me, that sounds like the Blue Jays or the Giants. After what just happened in the World Series, the Blue Jays are going to add to their bullpen and they have the cash to do it. He is going to Toronto either on a 1/$15m deal with a player option for year 2 at another $15m or he gets 3/$42m with deferrals.

17. Merrill Kelly – SP

• Overview: Kelly did what he does last year by pitching 180 innings with upper 3s ERA. His big problem is that he is already 37 years old. That is going to limit him to a 2 year deal but should mean his market robust. He could go literally anywhere, even to a team like the White Sox or Nationals who would only be looking to flip him at the deadline.
• Prediction: 1 and 1 with a player option for year 2 at $15m per season to the Padres

18. Jorge Polanco – 2B/3B

• Overview: Polanco went to Seattle in a trade 2 years ago and stunk it up. They released him…then signed him back…and got the player they originally traded for! For ending exactly as expected it took a round about route in getting there. Despite playing his home games in Seattle, he actually performed much better at home. One thing that didn’t rebound was his defense though. He will turn 33 in July.
• Prediction: He seems to be purely a replacement level player to me who does not have a reliable track record at this point. He is someone that will replace what you lose but not improve the team. That sounds like a classic Yankee move to me, but they don’t exactly need him. The Red Sox have an opening with the likely loss of Alex Bregman, but they may dream bigger. If the Diamondbacks trade Ketel Marte, he would be a good stop gap replacement. 2/$22m with the Texas Rangers.

Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and the Rest of the Japanese Stars Coming to MLB

19. Harrison Bader – CF

• Overview: Bader finds himself as the best and maybe only centerfielder on the market. That’s a good place to be with teams like the Phillies and Mets in play. On one hand, he had a great but completely unsustainable run with the Phillies to end the season and will be 32 years old. On the other, he is a true plus centerfielder.
• Prediction: I had Bader at 3/$30m about a month ago but his market has only grown since then. Maybe he goes as high as 3/$36m and it will probably be with the Phillies even though he already said good bye. They just don’t have any other options.

20. Ryan O’Hearn – 1B/DH

• Overview: O’Hearn seems like he would be a lefty masher type but that’s not him. He is a solid hitter but doesn’t walk enough and doesn’t have much power. You would like him at any other position, unfortunately that’s not possible. Instead, he ends up being a low end first baseman, the kind of guy you’d love to trade for if your own first baseman went down. That’s not exactly a good market. Expect him to get to a lower end team and be used as trade bait.
• Prediction: News outlets have been going out of their way to claim that the Reds, Marlins, and Pirates are going to be spenders this year. What a joke. Instead of gunning for Kyle Schwarber, expect them to throw out $10m on O’Hearn and then trade him later. I’ll go with the Pirates at $10m with a second year team option that won’t be exercised but gives him an extra $2m in a buyout. If someone gets hurt before he’s signed, I will be changing my pick.