Ranking Phillies Offseason Priorities

For not having scads of money to spend, the Phillies sure do have a lot of options. They could run it back with Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, and Harrison Bader (sorry, but Ranger Suarez can’t come back if we resign Kyle, he is just too expensive). They could pivot to a different big money bat like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. Then there is making smaller moves to upgrade all over the place. Of course, much of this is not up to the team as the market will end up dictating where the team will go first and next.

A big reason for this flexibility is the non-guaranteed nature of the contracts for Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott. I get it, all of you are in love with one of them for one reason or another, but they represent about $20m in luxury tax through arbitration and can all be upgraded if necessary. In the annoying words of Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.

All the Phillies can really do is make priorities. This is basically a to-do list for the offseason based on team needs and resources. It also helps keep the heart out of this. Let’s see what we need to do as opposed to what we want to do…

#1 – Centerfield

  • I have been stressing Harrison Bader this offseason because there simply are no other options in center. Justin Crawford is fast but apparently doesn’t have much instinct for it. I shouldn’t even have to say no to Brandon Marsh at this point, he didn’t work last year and shouldn’t be an option this year. Are we really going to trade for Byron Buxton or Jarren Duran? Probably not. It really is Bader or bust and bust is not an option.
  • In case you were wondering how much Bader might cost.

#2 – Power

  • As currently constructed, who on the Phillies has 20 HR power other than Bryce Harper? Yup. No one. No one is even particularly close either. That’s bad. Now, I am not saying it has to be 50 HRs, but we need at least 2 guys to be able to get some quick runs on the board. Ideally one of these comes from the DH spot and one comes from an outfielder.
  • Of course, Schwarber or Tucker would fit the bill, but there are other options as well. Cody Bellinger, Eugenio Suarez, and Munetaka Murakami would only cost money. There are possible trades like Yandy Diaz from the Rays, Seiya Suzuki from the Cubs, or Randy Arozarena from the Mariners.

#3 – Catcher

  • Maybe this should be higher on the list, as it’s not unlike CF in that it is JT Realmuto or bust. Whereas the alternative in CF is, well, not-centerfielders, the backup plan at catcher is at least still catchers: Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan. Granted, they are bad hitters but they are at least decent catchers. They also offer a bit of a platoon split. For some reason, last year Topper did not let the switch hitting Marchan bat much against lefties where he is considerably better. This is because JT is a righty. The only problem was that JT had reverse splits last year and Topper never acknowledged it.
  • Anyway, besides the near minimum salary duo and paying JT around $15m per year, the other options are Ryan Jeffers of the Twins and Shea Langeliers of the A’s but probably not Adley Rutschman of the Orioles or Sean Murphy of the Braves.

#4 – Corner Outfield

  • On one side, it almost has to be Justin Crawford. Crawford is a polarizing prospect because he puts the ball on the ground a LOT. His speed helps him keep his average over .300 and he has a pretty good eye at the plate. He is also VERY cheap. For a team playing in the $300m range already, cheap options become preferable options.
  • On the other side, you could have Brandon Marsh. To say Marsh is streaky is an understatement. He started the season ice cold, to the point where he should not have been in the majors. However, he eventually picked it up and went nuclear to end the season. By the end his numbers looked fine as long as you ignore his lack of power, aversion to steals despite his speed, his K/W ratio, and his inability to hit lefties. At BEST he is a strong side platoon and needs a partner. At worst, he’s a 4th outfielder who makes too much money.
  • If we platoon Marsh, possible partners include Rob Refsnyder, Brenton Doyle, or Lourdes Gurriel. Personal right-handed favorite Luis Robert isn’t an option because the White Sox didn’t pick up his option to sell low right now, they are looking for a bounce back.
  • If we decide to get a regular to play left, it means we have an additional $5m that was earmarked for Marsh to play with. There are a few of the power guys above but also Ryan O’Hearn had shockingly even splits last season, but no one knows if that is sustainable. He’s also not much of an upgrade. Kazuma Okamoto might also fit the bill.

#5 – Setup Man

  • Jhoan Duran is the closer. Who is coming in for the 8th? Is it Matt Strahm? Strahm was fine last year, but not the lights out guy he was in years past. Jose Alvarado? If you think he is an elite arm, I don’t know what to tell you. His return to 102 wasn’t real and it’s not coming back. Without it, he is ordinary. Orion Kerkering? Maybe he becomes a better pitcher because of how the season ended, but it’s not like he was having a good year anyway. What I’m getting at is that we need somebody. We need a Jeff Hoffman fireman type.
  • With Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams signed, that leaves Robert Suarez or Pete Fairbanks but not Edwin Diaz, he costs too much. Maybe a reunion with Seranthony Dominguez, but he might be more of the same? On the trade market there is JoJo Romero of the Cardinals and Dennis Santana of the Pirates who are both decently cheap considering their performance last year. Maybe they just wait until the deadline again.

#6 – Starter/Long-Man

  • Barring any other injuries, next year’s April rotation will look like this: Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter, and Taijuan Walker. That’s fine for a month or two until Zack Wheeler comes back, but it comes with a concerning lack of depth. Nola was very bad last year and I am not one to simply dismiss that. He has been trending in the wrong direction for years. Painter will be a rookie and didn’t exactly light up the minors last season, but I do believe he will be fine. Then there’s Walker who ideally isn’t even on this team next year if we could find a taker for a large chunk of his salary. There is no depth coming from AAA. So, who is making a spot start if necessary? Who is filling in during an IL trip?
  • Nick Martinez anyone? He is capable of starting or relieving as he made about an equal number of appearances in each job over the last 2 years as a Red. He wasn’t great, but he was good enough. MLBT has him at 2/$25m. That’s probably too rich for our blood. We need to do better than last year’s Joe Ross though.
  • The Phillies are going to be looking in the bargain bin for this job and they are more qualified than me to find someone. Expect a LOT of filler to be invited to Spring camp and for the best one to get a shot as the long man.

#7 – Designated Hitter

  • This is not a shot at Kyle Schwarber. Again, we need power. Getting a designated designated hitter though simply should not be something the team strives for. Why? Just look at the Yankees last year and the Phillies before them. Some injuries affect a player’s ability to play the field while still allowing them to hit. It happened to Aaron Judge and it has happened to Bryce Harper. If you have a designated hitter, that option is taken from you. This is especially true with Kyle Schwarber. You do not want him playing the outfield or first base. If something happened to Bryce again though, that’s exactly what we need to do. If it comes to Tucker of Schwarber, I am picking Tucker and not thinking twice about it.
  • Aside from KS, there’s the previously mentioned Ryan O’Hearn and also Luis Arraez. Arraez and his all hit no power approach might actually be pretty good hitting 5th in this lineup, but you could not have a more opposite replacement for KS. As much as this team needs to cut back on the strikeouts, they need power much more and you can’t have both KS and Arraez.
  • Internal options could include platooning rookie Gabriel Rincones, but he can’t even comprehend when a lefty is pitching to him. There’s Otto Kemp? Our bench is a bit bleak.
  • The other way of looking at it is that we could preemptively find a first baseman to split time with Harper. That would include any of the Japanese guys or even someone like Pete Alonso (throws up). This would allow both the new guy and Harper to get more rest during the season to try to pick up the offense while not sacrificing defense.
  • Unless it’s Schwarber (and even then), there’s no need to address the position quickly.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. All contract figures courtesy of Spotrac.

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