Philly Front Office

Adam Silver gave a really weird answer to the question of expansion recently when he said the league was looking into it but also that it will likely be in Seattle and Las Vegas when the League discusses the topic in 2026. Ummm…that sounds an awful lot like you have looked into it, Adam. NBA Expansion is going to happen. Maybe not right away, but pretty soon. 32 teams makes symmetrical sense and the league is overflowing with talent right now.

The last time the NBA expanded was in 2004 when they gave Charlotte a second chance at pro ball (it’s gone swimmingly). Before that, it was the move into Canada in 1995 with the Toronto Raptors and the since moved Vancouver Grizzlies. That’s only 3 teams in 35 years. It’s time. Here is what you need to know…

Process

The first step is to get the current NBA owners to agree to expansion. I couldn’t find the exact provision, but damn near every NBA change requires a 3/4 majority for approval. That means 23 owners would need to give a thumbs up to make this happen. How do you get 23 billionaires to agree to something? By offering them even more cash!

The process starts with an expansion fee which also has to be agreed to. This is a two-way decision. What does that mean? Well, not only would the 30 owners need to split the expansion fee, but they also have to consider how much of the current 11/$76b media rights agreement they are willing to carve up. Let’s do some math.

Currently that media rights deal yields an average of $230m per season to each owner (minus whatever goes to the league). The players share in this amount too in the form of salary at a 50/50 split, so $115m for the team. Two additional owners drop that to $107.5m or $1.1825b over the life of the deal.

Each time an NBA team is sold, it boosts the value of the other teams. For that reason, the NBA is not going to want to just give a franchise away. The average team value is a whopping $4.66b right now, with the Lakers recently selling for $10b. The NBA is going to want that number much closer to the Lakers than the average. The Sixers are currently #10 at $5.45b. Expect the number to be around $8b when all is said and done. At $8b not only does that raise the value of 27 other teams, but it means $16b is going to be split among the other 30 owners to the tune of $533m each. It may end up being even higher. That number is NOT split amongst the players. So, they will weigh the difference between roughly $.5b + increased franchise value now vs $1.1b later.

Expansion Draft

Once they agree to add the teams, those teams need to add some players. This could change, but previous expansion drafts required teams to protect at least 8 players. Those not protected would be eligible to be plucked, contract and all, from teams to immediately join the new franchise. While conventional wisdom might be that this would be picking from the bottom of a roster, that is not necessarily true for the NBA. Things are going to get juicy.

Why? Because some good players are tied to bad contracts that teams would LOVE to get off of. Sure most 11th and 12th men will not be protected, but so too will some stars and near all stars. We are years away from an actual draft, but if the process started today, who might go unprotected? Well, THE Process for one. Do you think the Sixers wouldn’t try to bait the new teams into taking his enormous contract off their hands for nothing? It’s a franchise crippling albatross, but he might be just the star power a new team would want to fill the seats and move merchandise. What about Zach LaVine? Jordan Poole anyone? Just kidding, no one wants Jordan Poole. What about whatever bad deal the Bucks find themselves trapped in once Giannis leaves? Who knows what kind of situation teams will be in when this draft happens. Getting rid of a bad contract for nothing might be a godsend.

When the NHL expanded recently, the savvy new GMs in (ironically) Seattle and Las Vegas made deals with teams to either not select players or to take contracts off their hands, acquiring much needed draft capital in the process. That would be supercharged in the NBA. It will be VERY fun.

NOTE: The Bobcats were given the #4 pick in the 2004 NBA draft because it was the first pick outside the lottery. Expect something similar to happen with the new teams selecting 5th and 6th since the lottery has expanded to 4 teams.

Realignment?

Both proposed expansion cities are distinctly located in the western US. There is no debate that they will need to be in the Western Conference. The problem is that the West already has 15 teams. Since the NBA will certainly keep things equal for each side, that means realignment is going to happen. The problem is that the current 6 division format does not divide easily between 32 teams. The League could go to a simple no division format considering the playoffs don’t care about divisions for the most part, but more likely we are looking at 8 divisions. Assuming Seattle and Las Vegas are indeed the next two NBA cities, here is what possible realignment could look like:

	Atlantic	North	South	Mid
East	Philadelphia	Toronto	Miami	Washington
	New York	Detroit	Orlando	Cleveland
	Brooklyn	Milwaukee	Atlanta	Indiana
	Boston	Chicago	Memphis	Charlotte
	Pacific	Desert	Mountain+	Texas+
West	Seattle	Las Vegas	Utah	Dallas
	Portland	LA Lakers	Denver	San Antonio
	Golden State	LA Clippers	OKC	Houston
	Sacramento	Phoenix	Minnesota	New Orleans

Some groupings are better than others, but this is probably the best way to cut the league up if you want to keep divisions.

Timeline

Previously, Charlotte was granted a franchise in December 2002 and began playing in 2004-05. Let’s say the league votes on and approves expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas in mid-2026. Both of these cities already have arenas ready to go for the most part. That is a huge time hurdle already cleared. That would leave the 26-27 season as the time for the franchises to get their business and structure together. The expansion draft could happen as soon as the 2027 offseason.