On Friday, the Phillies abruptly resigned JT Realmuto to a 3/$45m contract. I say abruptly because it was only a few minutes after word came out that Bo Bichette was signing with the Mets. Clearly the former was tied to the latter. If it wasn’t a panic move, it was one totally devoid of creativity and foresight. As the dust has settled, it’s become clear that it was even worse than initially thought.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, the Phillies desperately needed a catcher. The in-house alternatives were Rafael Marchan and Garrett Stubbs. They are acceptable backups at best and not fit to platoon with each other full-time. Bringing back JT was the most likely solution even if he is 35 and his bat has been completely sapped of it’s power.
So, what’s the problem? The contract is atrocious, that’s the problem. The Phillies routinely find themselves overpaying when they not only don’t have to, but it’s imprudent to do so. They are not learning any lessons!
It’s one thing to sign Trea Turner and Bryce Harper to 10+ year and $300m+ contracts, they are stars and that’s the market. These were bidding wars. Maybe you don’t like those terms, but that’s what it took to get 1 of 1 talents. However, it’s completely different to sign replacement level guys to multiyear deals.
The first player you are probably thinking of is Nick Castellanos who signed for 5/$100m four years ago. Even though the deal has aged terribly, it wasn’t the worst signing in the world when it happened. Nick was a pretty consistent .800+ OPS guy coming off a monster season (.939 OPS) and a $16m AAV at age 29. Giving him $20m a year to hit 25 HRs and 35-45 doubles wasn’t a bad idea. The real problem was maybe giving him $20m for 5 years instead of $25m for 4 years.
The following season, Taijuan Walker signed for 4/$72m. This was a bad move the moment it happened. Walker was coming off a good year for the Mets in which he threw 157 innings with a 3.49 ERA and similar FIP. He didn’t exactly have a good track record though, spending a ton of time on the IL. If you squint, I guess you could see some potential. That’s not the issue.
Coming off the World Series, the Phillies had Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, and a shaky Aaron Nola in the rotation. They needed someone. That was the year Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon signed big deals and Justin Verlander went for $43m per season. The 5th biggest starter contract that year went to Walker. Only 4 other starters received 4+ year deals (deGrom, Rodon, Kodai Senga, and Jameson Taillon). After them was a deluge of 4th and 5th starter types who went for 1-3 years an around $10-$20m per season, all indistinguishable from Walker. There was simply no reason to tie the team to him for so long. Again, the deal aged horribly.
In 2024, Aaron Nola signed for 7/$172m despite everyone having a sneaking suspicion that he was falling off. The previous year, Nola had a 4.46 ERA that started bad and never really came around. He had 3 very good playoff starts though before getting toasted in Game 6 of the NLCS against Arizona. Still, at 31, the Phillies gave him 7 years shortly before free agency opened. They gave him a deal he couldn’t refuse.
The pitching market that year went completely different than they assumed. After Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Nola signed the 3rd biggest contract by a LOT. No other pitcher received more than $80m and no one else received more than 4 years. Considering his recent track record and age, Nola should have been 5 years tops.
All of these deals are still on the books right now and represent around $62m of the Phillies tax payroll for 2026. Wouldn’t it be great to have that money to spend? Yes Nola would likely still be here, but that extra $38m could have gone to Bichette or Tucker or even Ranger Suarez. If we get anything positive from them this season it would be a minor miracle. You would think with these deals still on the books, the Phillies would have been reluctant to give JT Realmuto a big contract. NOPE. They offered him 3 years, but at less AAV and he didn’t want it. Was anyone running to give a 35 year old catcher with a withered bat1 3 years or $15m AAV, let alone both??? No chance! Still, the Phillies jumped at the chance as soon as they missed out on Bichette.
The Phillies run an enormous payroll and the primary owners are billionaires. Still, they have a limit of what they are willing to pay. They are at that number. Yes, a lot of that bad money comes off the books next year, but at some point we will be up against the wall again with new roster needs. We’ll see the tax sheet with 35 year old Aaron Nola making $25m plus a 37-year-old Realmuto making $15m and think, “damn, if only we didn’t give those extra years!”
Contract numbers courtesy of Spotrac
- His .700 OPS last year was the lowest of his career and it looked even worse than that throughout the season ↩︎
Philly Front Office 
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