Philly Front Office

Ever since the 2025 season ended in one of the most agonizing ways possible, things have been pretty negative around here. I didn’t like the Phillies plan, I didn’t like the Phillies execution, and I certainly didn’t like that the Phillies reliance on the word “content.” It all still irks me, but, that’s in the past now. I still love the Phillies, can’t fucking wait for the season to start, and will not be any less of a fan (even if I wanted to). It is what it is. With that, it is time to start looking at what we are rather than what we wish we were.

Not getting political, but I always liked the Donald Rumsfeld quote about things you know and don’t know.¹ I’m going to use it to assess the Phillies heading into Spring Training.

Known Knowns

This is the group of players that we know what they are and what we can expect, for better and for worse.

• Cristopher Sanchez – Sanchez continued his steady ascent up the pitching ranks last season, coming in at #2 for the Cy Young award. He’s our ace now and considering his repertoire and demeanor, should stay there.
• Kyle Schwarber – Should we expect another MVP runner-up season with 56 HRs, 132 RBI, and 4.7 WAR? Probably not. Should we expect 40+ HRs, a ton of walks, and giving the Phillies exactly what they need when they need it? Absolutely.
• Jhoan Duran – Duran was not perfect last season, but he certainly gave us the closer we’ve been missing for a long damn time. That stabilizing force is not going away.
• Brandon Marsh – Marsh will not hit lefties, go into an extreme funk for a while, and then come out of it crushing balls making us believe he’s turned a corner in his career. Then he will start to not hit again right when we need him to. This is what he does.
• JT Realmuto – Do you need solid catching, no power at all, and an average that does not match the eye test at all (in a good way…I guess)? That’s JT and it will be that way for the next 3 years.
• Alec Bohm – This is not to say there is not the possibility of variance with Bohm, but we are very familiar with certain elements of his gamer by now. There will not be HR power, there will not be many walks, and there will be several key at bats where he swings at the first pitch and the inning will be over just when we were about to get excited. We just need to hope the doubles are plentiful like they were in 2024.
• Taijuan Walker – What the hell is he doing here? Well, Walker has really been the same guy for the last few years except for an awful 2024. He is an average pitcher. That’s it. Yes, he has a bad contract, but we know he will be an average, replacement level pitcher. That’s what he is.
• Tanner Banks – There is often volatility with relief pitchers, but as a 34-year-old lefty without a ton of miles under his belt, Banks gives us a secondary lefty option that you can trust not to implode. He is as close to a known quantity as a reliever can be.
• The Bench – Edmundo Sosa, Otto Kemp, Johan Rojas we know what they are. Sosa can play defense and crush lefties, Kemp is beloved by the organization but likely a AAAA player, and Rojas will be a defensive replacement.
• Rob Thomson – I have been critical of him, but while the manager will make questionable in game decisions, he will also keep the team at even keel throughout a long season. While he may lose us some games, the losing streaks will stay at a minimum.

February 7, 2019: Phillies Trade for JT Realmuto

Known Unknowns

These are the guys with variance. There’s a chance they could pop off and have great years or give us more of the same. For some like Harper and Wheeler, this is not a knock on them. We could get All-Star level or we could get MVP-Cy Young level.

• Bryce Harper – By his standards, Bryce had a down year last season, and yet it was still pretty good. While I see his offseason as a cross between Astrology and Izzy Mandelbaum from Seinfeld, that could be what he needs to be confident in himself again. Bryce Harper is essentially Mr. Baseball, so who am I to criticize his process? He is going to have an .800+ OPS at the very least, but there is still the possibility he could be in the running for MVP again.
• Zack Wheeler – Zack has been one of the most steady great pitchers we will ever see. The problem is that we don’t really know what affect his illness and surgery will have on his performance. Considering there have been no negative signs in his rehab and he reported to camp with everyone else, it is probably safe to say that he will at least be good. Whether he will be elite again is the unknown.
• Jesus Luzardo – While I think both the floor and ceiling on Luzardo are pretty high, there is still that portion of the season last year where he was unfathomably bad. Are we going to see that again? If so, for how long? Those are the questions.
• Aaron Nola – I do not think Ace-Lite Nola is coming back. What we really have to know is if we are getting #3/4 starter Nola or put this guy on the IL or in the bullpen to figure things out Nola. The hope is that he is at least San Francisco Barry Zito and not Washington Patrick Corbin for the rest of his contract.
• Trea Turner – I almost put him in the known knowns category (and probably should have considering I did with Taijuan Walker), but we just don’t know how his fielding is going to hold up. While he has a high floor at the plate (save for half of 2023), his shortstop renaissance from 2025 needs to continue.
• Adolis Garcia – Garcia has been pretty dreadful at the plate the last 2 seasons, but he is at least a great fielder. The hope is that all his stats can inch up closer to where they were in 2023. Considering the ball park, the caoching, and the change of scenery and expectations, it is a possibility. Something like 25 HRs, a .240 average and a 3:1 strikeout walk ratio would be great (as opposed to his 19 HR, .225 average 4.5:1 ratio from last year).
• Bryson Stott – He might be what he is already too. We all see it for a few weeks at a time though where he gets solid hits and does everything right at the plate. He’s here while Marsh is up there because the highs and lows are not as extreme. While I admit that doesn’t make much sense, it seems like Stott is just an adjustment away from being consistent while Marsh won’t figure it out (as I type, I’m not sure I believe this).
• Jose Alvarado – No, he is not here because I think he can be dominant again. Last year’s throwback was not real. He’s here because he might be adequate or he might be terrible. I would not have brought him back this season.

Dave Dombrowski and His 1-Year Contracts

Unknown Unknowns

• Orion Kerkering – Do you have any idea what we are going to get out of him? I don’t. Last year’s last pitch meltdown is something that will stick with him forever. He will either be Brad Lidge who gets over it or never able to shake it. If you told me he was a lockdown fireballer this year or was in the minors by July I would be just as likely to believe either.
• Brad Keller – Keller went from a 5th starter to a bulldog reliever overnight. While I’m hopeful he becomes the Ryan Madsen to Jhoan Duran’s Brad Lidge, he simply does not have the experience in this role to fall back on if things go wrong. I’m optimistic, but there is the possibility for volatility here.
• The Rest of the Bullpen – It’s a bullpen. There is not much correlation for year over year performance and none of the rest of the guys were big names last year. They could pleasantly surprise or we could be fishing for depth at the deadline. Gabe Craig though, he’s my guy to watch from the farm.
• Justin Crawford – He’s going to be the starting centerfielder. Do we know what we have in him? Not even a little bit. He hits for a high average and is fast as hell, but he hits the ball on the ground at an historic rate. Will that translate to the big leagues? Some people think so, some people don’t. He is anybody’s guess.
• Andrew Painter – Painter might be an ace this year. He also might get lit up. Last year was his first full season back from TJ surgery and it was a mixed bag. The velocity was there and the health was there, but the results were not. It could be that the elite control and movement he had pre-surgery is the last thing to come back and we will see it on full display this year – OR – it’s gone. We’ll see,
• Aiden Miller – The wildest of wild cards for this season. While he will likely not make the team out of spring training, he might make the team out of spring training! The team and scouts are incredibly bullish on Miller but he is also a notorious slow starter at each level. He could push the team to trade Bohm in spring, he could push them to trade him at the deadline, or he never makes the majors this year. The range of outcomes is wide open.

Phillies Top Prospects Report: End of Season

The Phillies probably have a couple small moves left in them like a possible extra starter or right handed bat off the bench. Rhys Hoskins and Walker Buehler please! Opening Day is March 26th.

1. “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones” ↩︎