NFL Free Agency begins at noon on March 9th, so we are about a week away. What does that mean? PREDICTION TIME!!! I am much less interested in where players go than I am their actual contracts, but I’ll take a stab at both. Last year was a mixed bag, but I did have Zack Baun to the dollar and was pretty close with a few more like Chris Godwin, Nick Bolton, and Byron Murphy.
I did more detailed Eagles predictions earlier in the offseason but will do a full Eagles offseason prediction on Friday.
Eagles Offseason Part 1: The Salary Cap
Eagles Offseason Part 2: Extensions
Eagles Offseason Part 3: Team Needs
Eagles Offseason Part 4: Free Agents
Quarterbacks
- Malik Willis
- Contract: 3/$75m. Sam Darnold got 3/$100m last year after a good full season and despite heavy baggage. Word is that Willis is going to be in the same market. He played shockingly well when asked these last 2 years in Green Bay, but that only includes 3 starts and never against good defenses. I’m guessing he gets a good 1-year guarantee but without real long-term security.
- Team: Arizona Cardinals. The team is decently young and not as bad as their record last year. They also have more money to spend than draft picks to use in a trade for say Tanner McKee.
- Daniel Jones
- Contract: 4/$160m. Oh man, we are doing this again. Daniel Jones already turned one solid season and franchise tag standoff into a lucrative multi-year deal and history is repeating. Why not do the whole thing again? Same bad contract, AGAIN.
- Team: Indianapolis Colts. The only team that would pay him that money is the team that has to. Considering the franchise tag is a $43m direct cap hit, Jones has the Colts by the balls, just like he had the Giants years ago. They are also an overly confident team that believed they were the best team in football with Jones last year. There is a 100% chance they are running it back.
Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and Tight Ends
- George Pickens
- Contract: 1/$27.3m. I wrote up a look at the contract he should get, but Jerry Jones is going to make this as easy as possible for Pickens to turn him down and play the year on the tag.
- Team: Dallas Cowboys.
- Alec Pierce
- Contract: 3/$75m. Despite having bad QB play, Pierce has led the NFL in yards per catch the last 2 years. He’s tall, fast, and can jump. All of that is going to get him paid. I can’t believe he is going to get the same contract as DeVonta Smith.
- Team: Indianapolis Colts. I want to put him in Atlanta, SF, New Orleans, and even going home(-ish) to Cleveland, but the Colts are going to run everything back. I can’t have them bring back Jones without bringing back one of the guys who made him successful last year.
- Kenneth Walker III
- Contract: 3/$36m. Every year someone raises their price tag big time in the playoffs and this year it is without a doubt Walker (K’Lavon Chaisson is probably 2nd). He is 25 and a Mack Truck, like what everyone kept saying Isaiah Pacheco was. One team will see him as the missing piece and offer more than everyone else.
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars. They need a RB and the offense could really come together with his kind of running. You want him to go back to Seattle, but they aren’t going to pay a RB with all their other needs.
- Rashid Shaheed
- Contract: 3/$60m. He is going to get overpaid because the Seahawks won and his name is very fun. He is a WR3 at best who teams will pay like a WR2.
- Team: NY Giants. They just seem like the kind of team who will make the wrong move on someone flashy since the Dolphins will not be able to throw money around this offseason.
- Jauan Jennings
- Contract: 3/$69m. WTF? $23m per season!!! He might get even more. The WR market is simply nuts. That wouldn’t even make him the 20th highest paid WR in football by the time it’s signed.
- Team: Washington Commanders. He is older than you think at 29 which makes him perfect for Washington. Despite receivers fleeing SF, they have had no problem adding Jennings to the list despite back-to-back solid seasons. They aren’t going to come close to paying him.
- Mike Evans
- Contract: 1/$10m. He will be 33 and is firmly ring chasing at this point.
- Team: Buffalo Bills. He probably should have been playing with Josh Allen his entire career as he’s the talented big body Allen never had. Too bad it’s way too late.
- Kyle Pitts
- Contract: 1/$15m. Pitts had a breakout year for a tight end, but really just a solid year for a receiver. He’s really not a tight end. Getting that kind of production (88/900/5) from a receiver is definitely worth a $15m 1 year flyer to see if he can do it again.
- Team: Atlanta Falcons.
- Isaiah Likely
- Contract: 3/$33m. Likely sure picked a bad year to not get better. He is only 25 and has ideal size and speed for the position, but just never broke out with the Ravens. Still, those are green flags, not red.
- Team: Denver Broncos. When the Ravens re-upped Mark Andrews it became very clear that Likely was on his way out of Baltimore. That’s Denver’s gain as they need to do everything they can to make things easy for Bo Nix next season.
Offensive Line
- Tyler Linderbaum
- Contract: 5/$100m. It is absolutely crazy that the Ravens have themselves in a situation where the best center in the NFL might walk. It is a 2-part problem that results from Lamar Jackson not having an agent and franchise tags for offensive linemen being position blind. Jackson has not yet agreed to either a contract restructure or an extension leaving him with a $75m cap hit for 2026 (a restructure drops this by like $40m) and his tag is $25m ($7m over the highest center AAV. He either has the Ravens by the balls or will have a bidding war.
- Team: Baltimore Ravens. They have to be the favorite still, even if the situation is messy. If not them, then Carolina throws him the bag.
- Rasheed Walker
- Contract: 4/$84m. He is 26, a LT, and good (not great). That’s worth $20m per year without trying.
- Team: New England Patriots. They need somebody and without a real somebody being available, Walker is their guy. They have no problem overpaying either.
- Alijah Vera-Tucker
- Contract: 2/$30m.Tucker missed more than half of 2022, most of 2023, and all of 2025. Yikes! He IS good though. It’s just tough to give a guy like him the money he probably deserves.
- Team: Las Vegas Raiders. All of the red flags make him the perfect Raider. They need offensive line help and can afford to take chances considering their rebuild.
- David Edwards
- Contract: 3/$48m. The guard market has been steadily rising, but Edwards is 29 already and good but not great. This contract puts him in the top 15 for guards.
- Team: New York Jets. The Bills were obviously a one man show last year considering we were constantly told that Josh Allen had no help. That means they won’t mind losing their solid guard to a division rival right?
EDGE
- Jaelan Phillips
- Contract: 3/$72m. Phillips was healthy and awesome this year. The same can not be said for his 4 previous years in the NFL. Since EDGE is such a premium position and the free agent market is so weak, there’s a good chance he goes past this, I just don’t expect him to get there.
- Team: Philadelphia Eagles. He’s priority #1 right now for the defense and he obviously enjoyed playing in Philly and with such a stacked unit.
- Trey Hendrickson
- Contract: 2/$50m. I know why he held out last year but he could not have come out much worse for the whole process. Not only did he not get an extension but his level of play went down, he got hurt, and he’s a year older. Yikes! He’s 31 and those back-to-back 17.5 sack season look far in the rearview now.
- Team: Washington Commanders. Does any team want to throw big money at an older player more than Washington? I almost want to make the amount even higher knowing them.
- Odafe Oweh
- Contract: 2/$36m. Oweh had a 10-sack season in 2024 then was shutout with Baltimore before getting traded to the Chargers and nabbing 7.5 sacks in 12 games.
- Team: Carolina Panthers. I would think the Eagles would be in on him if he wasn’t giving off such Bryce Huff vibes. Instead, he goes to a team that needs the help and needs to take chances AND overpay in order to convince a free agent to sign.
- Boye Mafe
- Contract: 2/$30m. Mafe was always a solid contributor in Seattle, but his platform year did not go as planned (other than that whole winning the Super Bowl thing). He lost his starter job and despite the hurries, didn’t get the sacks you’d like to see. He went from being Josh Sweat to being Chase Young. Young had to sign a 1/$13m deal to redeem himself in New Orleans. He’s lucky the EDGE market is huge.
- Team: San Francisco 49ers. They need help, don’t like to break the bank in free agency, and would love to poach a Seahawk.
- K’Lavon Chaisson
- Contract: 3/$51m. Chaisson was on his 3rd team in 3 years and was a draft bust before busting out in New England. His 7.5 regular season sacks were good enough, but 3 more in the playoffs really bumped his price tag. A team friendly discount to stay in New England makes sense for both sides.
- Team: New England Patriots. The only way he doesn’t return is if someone blows the above number out of the water. They saved his career.
Defensive Tackles and Inside Linebackers
- Devin Lloyd
- Contract: 4/$80m. The inside LB market is a very weird one. Roquan Smith set the high water mark years ago with his 5/$100m deal and other than Fred Warner’s 3/$63m deal last year, no one has come close since. Lloyd won’t beat the total value or the highest AAV, but he will want to be in both conversations.
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have made some team building mistakes over the years but seem to be failing up. They cannot lose Lloyd who was the captain of their defense last year and the main reason that unit came alive last year.
- Nakobe Dean
- Contract: 3/$45m. Dean is injury prone but now looks like the guy who was leading the Georgia Bulldogs defensive to a national championship again. He is going to hold up Nick Bolton and Zack Baun’s contracts from last year and one particular team is going to pay him.
- Team: Dallas Cowboys. Not only does it make a ton of sense from a fit and coaching standpoint, but Jerry Jones would love to stick it to the Eagles. Easiest team change pick on the list.
- Dre’Mont Jones
- Contract: 3/$45m. Jones is consistently good but had his best season last year for the Titans and Ravens. He is coming off a 1-year deal, but at 29 is probably not looking to enter the mercenary portion of his career just yet.
- Team: Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are going through change on the team, but are usually not the kind of franchise that tries to fix what isn’t broken. A reunion makes sense.
Secondary
- Jamel Dean
- Contract: 3/$54m. Last year, Paulson Adebo, Byron Maxwell, Carlton Davis, and Charvarius Ward all signed for 3/$54m. The funny part is that they were all different ages (26, 27, 28, and 29 respectively) when they signed. Jamel Dean just had maybe his best season at 28 years old. He is absolutely looking at those contracts.
- Team: LA Rams. While a lot of teams need CBs, Dean will probably looking at more established teams that have a shot at winning a Super Bowl. Conveniently, those should be the teams looking at him too. He’s going to have a big market.
- Nahshon Wright
- Contract: 3/$48m. Where the hell did that season come from? Wright went from bouncing around organizations to picking off 5 passes and recovering 3 fumbles. Was it a breakout or a total fluke? That’s one of the biggest questions of this free agency period. He’s also 6’4″ but 27 years old. Considering it was just one year, his market is all over the map. He is going to aim for where last year’s quadrumvirate of corners signed (see above).
- Team: Dallas Cowboys. One of the teams that already got rid of Wright was the Cowboys and they are the type to run things back like that. They also have a need in the secondary and love their ballhawks.
- Bryan Cook
- Contract: 3/$57m. The safety market blew up big last year when Tre’Von Moehrig signed for 3/$51m. It may have been an overpay by the Panthers but that won’t matter come negotiation time. Cook will be 27 at the start of the season, a full 2 years older than Moehrig when he got his deal. Both have similar profiles and accomplishments, though Cook has lead much better defenses.
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs. As much as I would like KC to lose all their good players, they have always been careful about keeping their safeties around, more so than other teams.
- Jaylen Watson
- Contract: 3/$60m. Watson just had his first full year as a starting corner with prototype size and ability. If he were turning 26 to start the season instead of 28, he would be in line for a much bigger contract. He still might end up being the highest paid CB this cycle.
- Team: NY Jets. They have money to spend and a defense to rebuild. They will probably draft a CB high this draft, but then pair him with someone like Watson to maximize the effectiveness of both guys.
- Coby Bryant
- Contract: 3/$54m. Bryant is the 1a to Cook’s #1 safety available. While Cook grades out considerably better according to PFF, Bryant gets the bump for being on a dominant Super Bowl winning defense. They are the same age and I expect Bryant to sign first then Cook to beat it slightly.
- Team: Seattle Seahawks. There are places they will need to make cuts, but safety isn’t one of them.
- Tariq Woolen
- Contract: 2/$24m. Woolen broke out as a rookie but then got into some really bad habits and lost his starting job this year for the champs. They are probably out of the Woolen business, but someone will be taking a chance on the guy with the 4.2 speed and the 6’4″ frame.
- Team: Chicago Bears. After what they did with Wright last year, Woolen would be in the perfect situation in Chicago. The Rams would be runner up for me, but I have them going bigger.
- Reed Blankenship
- Contract: 3/$30m. A year ago, it looked like he would resign for the Eagles and be another steal. Then it looked like the Moehrig deal priced Reed out of Philadelphia. Now, after a disappointing season, the Eagles might just not want him back even though they are lacking at safety.
- Team: Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a need but rarely play at the top of the free agent market.
Previous contracts courtesy of Spotrac. Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference. Predictions all my own though.
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