Philly Front Office

Twice now the Padres and Phillies have battled over the two biggest free agents on the market. Both times, the Phillies won the prize and the Padres received the consolation. How has it gone since then? Let’s take a look at the choice of Trea Turner over Xander Bogaerts and others (after comparing Bryce Harper and Manny Machado last week).

Tuesday, June 2 at 6:40p – Aaron Nola v Randy Vasquez (R)
Wednesday, June 3 at 6:40p – Cristopher Sanchez v Walker Buehler (R)
Thursday, June 4 at 1:05p – Zack Wheeler v Lucas Giolito (R)

The 2022/23 offseason was the Winter of the Shortstop. Four players entered the market all with their own talents and the Phillies were in desperate need of one of them. Would it be Trea Turner of the Dodgers, coming off a 5.2 WAR down season for him in which he finished 11th in MVP voting? How about Xander Bogaerts, previously of the Boston Red Sox, who just put up a 5.7 WAR season with a .307 average? Then there was Carlos Correa who, after back-to-back big seasons opted out of his deal with the Twins. Finally, the best defender of the group and former #1 pick, Dansby Swanson who refused to take an early discount contract from the Braves. Turner and Correa would probably cost more and that was part of the calculus, especially for the Phillies and Padres who already had $300m men in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

PSP: Free Agent Flashback 1 – Harper vs Machado

Let’s stack them up:

2022 Stats	Trea Turner	Carlos Correa	Xander Bogaerts	Dansby Swanson
Age	29	27	29	28
WAR	5.2	5.3	5.7	5.5
Games	160	136	150	162
HR	21	22	15	25
AVG	.298	.291	.307	.277
OBP	.343	.366	.377	.329
OPS	.809	.834	.833	.776

Didn’t see those stats coming did you? Of course, this was only for 2022. Trea Turner was expected to age best and was on a Hall of Fame track at this point after a few stolen base titles, regularly very high batting averages, and a 5-tool profile. Correa had the highest highs with two 7 WAR seasons under his belt. For years, Bogaerts had been seen as much more of a glove man with doubles power, but had broken out over his last few years in Boston. As for Swanson, 2022 had been easily his best season. While his glove had the good track record, his bat did not.

Phillies Series Preview: The Padres Give the Gift of a Lifetime, John Kruk

Bidding War

The Padres and Phillies were rumored to be in on everybody that winter, but Trea Turner was the prize. Bryce Harper had been publicly advocating for Turner over the past year. The Padres didn’t just have Machado, they also had Juan Soto in the mix after trading for him at the most recent deadline. Reports had it that they were even the high man in the bidding, offering Turner $342m ($1m more than Francisco Lindor) over an undisclosed amount of years. In the end though, on December 6th, 2022 the Phillies landed Turner for 11/$300m.

Clearly the Padres had money burning a hole in their pocket and the rest of the free agents had to be licking their lips. Two days after the Phillies signed Turner, Xander Bogaerts agreed to an 11/$280m deal to play in San Diego. This was WILD. No one was expecting Bogaerts to get a boat like that, but the Padres were determined to get somebody I suppose.

The Cubs were in on Bogaerts and ended up pivoting to the defensive savant in Swanson for the considerably cheaper price of 7/$177m. On a per year basis, this was inline with the other three, but over a considerably less scary piece of time.

I said three others because Swanson was the last to sign. Two days earlier, Carlos Correa signed with the SF Giants for a gargantuan 13/$350m. After years of missing out on top free agents, the Giants finally got their guy and were ready to announce it to the world. However, only a few hours before the scheduled press conference was to begin, it was cancelled instead. Correa didn’t pass his physical due to concerns over an ankle injury from back in 2014. Then the worst thing happened, the following day, the Mets and their owner’s bottomless pockets swung in and signed him to a 12/$315m contract. Except that didn’t happen either! After reviewing the medicals with their own doctors, the Mets didn’t like the ankle either. It wasn’t until 3 weeks later that Correa had to go back to the Twins on a 6/$200m contract. This was still more than Swanson, but considerably less than the World Series cheater thought he was getting.

Phillies Series Preview: Mr. Padre Edition

How Is It Going?

Of the 4, it’s fair to say that none have gone according to plan. Turner goes from being one of the worst players in the league to one of the best for months at a time with no rhyme or reason. Bogaerts is an immovable albatross of league average pay with a superstar contract. Correa hasn’t been as bad as you would think, but is regularly injured (not to do with the ankle though) and has been traded back to Houston under heavily subsidized terms. Swanson may be the most consistently valuable and available of the four, but most of that is still due to his glove; his final season with Atlanta is still his best offensively.

Stats (2023- now)	Trea Turner	Carlos Correa	Xander Bogaerts	Dansby Swanson
Age	29	31	33	32
WAR	11.9	7.8	8.2	14.9
Games	475	397	458	512
HR	69	48	49	69
AVG	.280	.267	.268	.237
OBP	.329	.341	.329	.311
OPS	.777	.767	.732	.711
OPS+	111	112	103	100
Remaining Contract	7/$191m	2/$60.5m	7/$178m	3/$81m

YIKES! None of these guys have been even close to worth their contracts. The Astros and Cubs at least don’t have too much remaining on these deals, especially with the Twins paying around 1/3 of the Correa contract. Correa is having something of a solid year so far and could be a trade candidate again this summer. Swanson though is having an ugly year at the plate as one of the worst hitters in baseball. The Phillies and Padres though have 7 more years on Turner and Bogaerts. Both are off to awful starts to 2026. Turner was solid last season and has some hope to turn things around, but Bogaerts is having his third straight powerless, lackluster year. He is dead in the water.

Turns out, despite 4 choices back in 2022, there was no right answer. Except maybe skipping shortstop all together and outbidding the Yankees on Aaron Judge who has been worth every penny of his 9/$360m so far.

Stats: Baseball Reference

News: MLB Trade Rumors

Money: Spotrac

Photo: Séptima Entrada