This started as a completely different article. I figured I would have a good back and forth between the good and the bad to show that the team really isn’t as troubling as we all think. Halfway through though, I ran out of good things to say and had plenty more negative to write about. So, what is it? Is the team due for a regression? Are the sum of the parts just not a s great as the whole?
PRO – Donny Baseball, Three Elite Starters, Three All-Star Hitters, and Jhoan Duran
We all know the Phillies were 9-19 when Rob Thomson got the axe. Since then, they are 45-24. That’s the difference between a 106-win pace and a 52-win pace. Is Donny Baseball doing anything special? Not really. His hiring at least got the attention of the players though.
At the time of the change, the Phillies had a -54 run differential, were averaging just 3.64 runs per game, and were 10.5 games back of the Braves and in last place. Since that day, the Phillies are +44 and would have a 6-game lead in the division over the Marlins. That +44 is the 4th best mark in baseball over that time.
Everything is led by the top 3 starters. Cristopher Sanchez is one bad Trea Turner play from having an ERA in the 1s and has already taken our breath away with the 3rd longest scoreless streak in MLB history. Even with the recent blip, he’s starting the All-Star game and has proven the spotlight does not get to him. Meanwhile Zack Wheeler is on a tear and is apparently very angry at everyone. He’s having one of his best seasons despite offseason surgery that had some people questioning his ability to continue pitching at all.
Then there is Jesus Luzardo. His 3.51 ERA is very deceiving. In his 19 starts he’s given up 2 runs or less in 14 of them. This includes an April 15th outing against the Cubs when Rob Thomson left his corpse on the mound to rot (he was already dead in the 5th, but Topper sent him out for the 6th to get desecrated with no one warming up). His 2.84 FIP tells a much more accurate story. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does against the Dodgers next week.
Those three were expected, as were Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for the most part. Brandon Marsh not having one of his patented Marshian slumps was not. Because of it, he is an All-Star. The All-Star nod is great, but he really needs to keep things going in the 2nd half because he is walking even less than usual and his numbers against lefties still aren’t very good (but not awful awful). Whether he can do it or not, the Phillies desperately need his consistency in the lineup.
As a whole, the Phillies have ten blown saves good for 4th best in the league. Jhoan Duran is only responsible for one of them and is 24-25 on the season in save opportunities. The Washington Nationals on the other hand are 27 for 54. 27 blown saves! Do you know where these teams would be if the situation were reversed and Duran was locking down games in Washington? Well, you could probably just reverse our records. He has been a godsend.
One more good thing to talk about before we get to the bad. How about Derek Hill? I loved the trade when it happened because Hill was a professional with a skill set. He is fast, plays a good CF, and can hit lefties. That’s the type of guy who is supposed to fill out the back end of the bench, not Otto Kemp.
CON – Two Not Elite Starters, the Rest of the Bullpen, the Rest of the Lineup, and Even Those Who Have Left Us
The Phillies are 40-14 in games started by the trio above. That means 14-29 in games started by anyone else including Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter, Taijuan Walker, and the bullpen (Nola is 9-10 which means the 5th starter spot is 5-19). That’s just putrid. Imagine going just a game under .500 in those starts? 21-22 means this team is 61-36 right now, tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. Finding competence at the back end of the rotation would mean everything. Instead, there’s nothing.
The only thing worse than the 5th starter situation is everyone else in the bullpen with apologies to Tim Mayza, Orion Kerkering, and Jonathan Bowlan who have been fine. Not good mind you, but fine. At least with those three I don’t immediately get an ulcer. The same can’t be said for Jose Alvarado, Brad Keller, and… well they are moving guys up and down so much that I don’t even know who to get mad at right now. The Phillies have one elite bullpen arm and absolutely no one you’d say you trust in the 7th or 8th inning. That’s a big problem, especially if a lefty is up. Keller better have a better second half or that’s one more big ticket item the Phillies need at the deadline.
No one on the whole team has been more disappointing than Trea Turner. It’s a full scale catastrophe too. He tricked us with his 5+ WAR season last year into thinking he turned a corner. Instead, he can’t hit, his approach is atrocious, and his defense at SS is simply not acceptable any more. The worst part is that he has fallen into the dreaded “it’s always something with this guy” mode with the fanbase. We all feel it when he gets to the plate, especially in a big spot. There’s little hope.
Because Turner has been so bad, we ignore that Alec Bohm still stinks. His defense has been surprisingly good, but we all mistook a competent May for him turning things around. He hasn’t. Granted, he was the worst hitter in baseball by a lot in April, but his .198 AVG and .622 SLG over the last month isn’t exactly lighting up.
So 3B and SS have been bad, but catcher? Yikes! JT Realmuto still isn’t taking many days off yet we are still carrying three catchers for some reason, none of whom can hit (despite JT getting a clutch knock every once in awhile). In total, the 3 are hitting .177 with a .290 SLG, good for just 20 extra base hits in 371 plate appearances. Don’t worry, at least we aren’t locked into this for a few more years at a high price.
At least they are catchers though. Right Field on the other hand is hitting just .201 and that’s with Derek Hill and Brandon Marsh padding those stats. Take their 57 ABs away and it drops to .189. with a n OPS in the mid .500s. Gabriel Ricones has been better as of late, but even platooning with Hill, this is not a solution. On the birghtside, at least they haven’t gone back to Otto Kemp and his -.7 WAR in just 13 games. That’s good for -12.5 WAR over a full season. He is the anti- Carl Yastrzemski!
Finally, let’s end this rant with some bitching about contracts. Nick Castellanos, Taijuan Walker, and Adolis Garcia are being paid a combined $47.2m this season and have provided a combined -1.5 WAR. $47m lit on fire. Their seasons are all at least mercifully over.
What to Make of Things?
I really don’t know what to make of this team. Part of me wants to say that they are overachieving and will crash back down to Earth, but that doesn’t seem right. The pitching staff is just WAY too good. I can’t help but think that a few tweaks here and there will make everything look more formidable.
We absolutely need a 5th starter. I am talking someone not much better than Michael Lorenzen from two years ago. Think an ERA in the 4s rather than a Tarik Skubal type. Anything to lock down that 5th starter spot and pray Aaron Nola is the only one we need to worry about.
In the bullpen, we need a lefty. The flotsam at the back end is useless and everyone needs to be pushed down a spot. Jose Alvarado really needed to be the big lefty and he’s been an embarrassment. Now we need a real lefty to lock down the backend.
The path to a better bat is not an easy one. Upgrading Alec Bohm at 3rd does not have many solutions and there are even less for righty options in right. Maybe we just bite the bullet and get another lefty to platoon with Derek Hill?
For as much as people like me have roasted Dave Dombrowski, the one thing he has been consistently good at since joining the Phillies has been his trades (Austin Hayes wasn’t his fault). Fingers crossed Dave.
Before and After Stats: Baseball Reference
Photo: Phillies Instagram
Leave a Reply