The 2026 Phillies are no more. I can’t say it was very fun other than in maybe August. The team was either shooting itself in the foot with dumb mistakes or trying to dig itself out from a whole. The roster never seemed right either. We were always down a bat, a starter, and a bullpen arm, but nothing we tried ever seemed to work. Is there any hope for 2027, assuming there is a 2027?
Management and Coaching
Let’s start at the top. While many, me included, hope to see Dave Dombrowski hit the old dusty trail, the rumors all season have me believing he is coming back. No such luck. Why anyone should be rewarded for not fixing their problems despite damn near unlimited resources is beyond me, but here we are.
As for the coaches, can we stop with the former Yankee old-heads please? Don Mattingly isn’t coming back. They have given no indication that they want him to return, he made questionable decisions all year, and it seems like Alex Cora is Dombrowski’s guy. At the very least, someone who emphasizes preparation needs to be in charge. This team simply makes too many mistakes on the bases and at the plate. It’s exasperating.
Speaking of “at the plate”, why in the world is Kevin Long still employed. Look, I have no idea what makes a good pitching coach, but I do know that literally none of our players are better hitters now than they were even two years ago. I’m sure he works well with Kyle Schwarber, but everyone else he has either failed or has tuned him out. Either way, what is his point exactly?
Where Can We Even Make Changes?
Sorry to inform everyone, most of this team is coming back. Trea Turner and Aaron Nola are untradeable thanks to monster deals and no trade clauses,1 Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the faces of the team and movers of merch, and we aren’t going to deal from the elite rotation. There is no vet-for-prospects trade out there unless you want to send our two best players, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, packing. That’s not happening. Ken Rosenthal posited that EVERYONE could be up for a trade, but I cannot imagine that reality.
The 2027 rotation is already set with Sanchez, Luzardo, Zack Wheeler, Nola, and a resurgent and redeemed Andrew Painter. The bullpen has Jhoan Duran, Alex McFarlane, Jonathan Bowlan, and YIKES! Obviously, this is the group that needs and can stand the biggest overhaul. We had two functional relievers by the time the post season came around. Meanwhile the Braves were confidently running out a lefty opener I’ve never heard of in a deciding playoff game. We are not the same.
The hitters are more fluid than you think despite being locked into so many contracts. Harper isn’t an ideal right fielder, but it is at least an option if a good 1st Base bat is available. Bryson Stott isn’t a lock to be on the team, but he has added 3rd Base to his defensive options. Then of course, there is Trae Turner. His bad defense at the most important position would be more tolerable if he could hit. Left field has to be an option.
So, what does that mean? Catcher and probably Centerfield2 are the only positions locked in next year. Anywhere (but not everywhere) else is up for grabs.
I go into much more detail about this here, but the Phillies should have around $50-$70m to spend next year.3 The high end is without both Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott coming back.4 I want to do this slightly different by building an ideal lineup rather than just plug guys into positions. Let’s go spending…
Lineup Options
My first order of business is to pencil J.T. Realmuto into the 9 spot. He’s not an MLB level hitter anymore, but he also isn’t going anywhere. Crawford/Hill are hitting 8th. Both are too clutch to be misused at the absolute bottom of the lineup.
On the other end, we need a real leadoff hitter because it cannot be Turner anymore. It was malpractice to keep his .297 OBP at the top of the order all year. The two most ideal leadoff targets are outfielders Randy Arozarena and Steven Kwan. While Arozarena is a free agent who will be looking at a 3/$75m-ish deal, Kwan is in the final year of his contract with Cleveland which means he will either sign a below market extension or be traded. Both boasted .380+ OBPs this season.
Depending on whether we go free agent or trade at leadoff, we probably need to do the opposite in the 2 hole. This could mean split-neutral free agent Luis Arraez coming back to play 2nd base at let’s say 3/$45m. There’s free agent righty Seiya Suzuki who is probably looking at something in the range of what Arozarena will get. Getting him along with Kwan would be great, but it means Trea Turner is your shortstop next season. There are righties Josh Jung (3B Rangers), Jeremy Pena (SS Astros), and Zach Neto (SS Angels) possibly available via trade. All would be an upgrade over Turner in the 2 spot.
I dream of a world where someone is already on base for Bryce Harper but the pitcher is terrified to throw him a ball because Kyle Schwarber is on deck. Schwarber has been the best leadoff option for the Phillies, but only out of necessity. He needs to hit cleanup with someone who can possibly knock him in behind him.
Funny thing is, 2nd half Alec Bohm would be great here. He ended up being our best run producer by the end. Has that ship sailed? Probably, for everyone’s sanity. He will probably go to Tampa and crush it. If not him though, then… is this where we end up putting Trea Turner? Goddamn it. He is right-handed which is probably necessary after so many lefties.
In a perfect world the Phillies would be able to grab Teruaki Sato from Japan. He is a lefty 3rd baseman who will end up being the MVP of the NPB thanks to a strong mix of average and power. The Phillies never end up landing Japanese guys though.
Instead, this is where the final year of Bryson Stott will probably hit. Now this is not a static choice and it plays in to our #7 hitter, Aiden Miller. Miller and fellow prospect Bryan Rincon are going to end up factoring into the roster next season because they are young, cheap, and nearly ready (both may start in AAA). Rincon is a switch hitter and Miller is a righty. Neither gets the job right away though. Instead, Stott mans 3rd and Mauricio Dubon becomes our new Edmundo Sosa. All 4 guys are in the mix for the left side of the infield. Dubon should sign for something like 2/$15m this winter. Sosa coming back for around that same price would be fine too.
- Kwan/Arozarena (LF)
- Luis Arraez (2B)/Zach Neto (SS)
- Bryce Harper (1B)
- Kyle Schwarber (DH)
- Trea Turner (RF)
- Stott/Miller (3B)
- Rincon/Dubon (SS/2B)
- Crawford/Hill (CF)
- JT Realmuto (C)
Bullpen Options
A good bullpen has a hierarchy. You have a closer, a top set up guy, then two quality lefty and righty specialists to throw at their best hitters in the 6th and 7th innings, and finally a long man. The final spot is for just a guy. In my mind, we have a closer and we have our two righties. Tanner Banks can be one of our lefties and hopefully someone from the minors pops to be our “just a guy” person instead of Chase Shugart or Kyle Backhus. That means we need to fill 3 spots.
If there was extra money out there, I would scream for the Phillies to go after Adrian Morejon, the lefty relief ace who will be looking to be a closer next year after living in the shadow of Mason Miller. He is going to be looking in the 5/$100m range though since he’s only 27 and he’s a lefty. If that’s way off and he comes in at 3/$50m, then sign me up. A similar move but in trad form would be to talk to the Astros about Josh Hader. The lefty has 2/$38m left on his deal and big changes might be coming to Houston. Having Duran and one of these lefties at the back end would be back breaking for other teams. Further down the list would be righty free agents David Bednar and Bryan Abreu while Griffin Jax and Luke Weaver could be available via trade from the Rays and Pirates.
Sean Newcomb and Tyler Alexander are both lefties coming off big seasons on one-year contracts. One thing is for sure, Jose Alvarado cannot be on the Phillies next year. I feel for his family situation and love his coffee addiction, but he cannot be our top lefty anymore.
Lockout
I don’t know if there will be baseball next season assuming a long lockout beginning December 1. I do know that things will freeze on that date and we will not have much to talk about over the winter. However, we could see a flurry of activity in November from teams looking to spend while they can. Just something to look for after the World Series.
- 7/$191m remaining for Trea and 4/$98m for Nola ↩︎
- The combo of Justin Crawford and Derek Hill is very cheap and good enough ↩︎
- This is based on a payroll of $330m, $10m higher than 2026, and no changes to baseball’s finances. ↩︎
- Both should have Arb 3 numbers of around $10m. I don’t see how or why Marsh should come back at that price. I love the guy, but he is not nearly a good enough defender to justify his incredible streakiness at the plate for that price ↩︎
Contracts: Spotrac
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