The MLB offseason has the chance to be shot out of a cannon this season unlike most years. Why? The lockout is coming on December 2. That means November might be the final bit of baseball fun we have for a long time. Once the World Series ends and 5 days pass, free agency begins. We should have one good month to see a whole flurry of MLB business go down. So, let’s not waste any time. Here are team and contract predictions for the Top 15 MLB Free Agents!1
NOTE: I am working under the impression that no one accepts their qualifying offers, Michael King opts out of his deal and Bo Bichette will opt in with the Mets
- Tarik Skubal – Starting Pitcher – 30
- Skubal has been on the short list of best pitcher in baseball for the last 3 seasons and is quite simply going to the highest bidder. The Dodgers make a lot of sense, but he has Mets written all over him. The current AAV leader for pitchers is Zack Wheeler at $42m with Frambar Valdez in 2nd at $38.33. You know he wants to show up his old team and old teammate and Uncle Steve is just the guy to do it.
- Mets – 8/$360m with an opt-out after the 2nd year
- Randy Arozarena – Corner Outfield – 32
- Arozarena certainly picked a great time to have his best season. His strikeouts were down, his average was way up, and his 5.7 WAR means he is about to get overpaid. $20m per season is probably the right price, but with the dearth of right handed corner outfielders out there, Randy is going to cash in.
- Phillies – 4/$100m
- Seiya Suzuki – Corner Outfield – 32
- Like Arozarena, Suzuki picked a great time to have his best season. Their numbers look pretty similar across the board except Suzuki has been the much more consistent player throughout his career with higher averages and more consistent slugging numbers.
- Blue Jays – 4/$90m
- Freddy Peralta – Starting Pitcher – 30
- Peralta probably had the biggest roller coaster season you could imagine. He gets traded to the Mets and flat out sucks before getting traded to the Rays and coming up roses all in a contract year. While he was probably looking at $200m+ a year ago, he will still end up getting paid as the second best pitcher on the market. He is probably in the ballpark of what Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo received last year considering he is more durable but not the same year over year play as those two (but it’s close).
- Padres – 5/$137.5m
- Michael King – Starting Pitcher – 31
- King has to decide if he wants to opt out of his $28m salary for 2027.2 Considering he is already 31 and is coming off a healthy season with a 3.21 ERA, he probably will since his platform isn’t likely going to get better than this (last year he missed half the season and settled for a 3/$75m deal with opt outs). Who is ready to pay big money for a starter though? Who else?
- Dodgers – 4/$120m with opt outs each season and deferred money.
- Teruaki Sato – Corner Outfielder/3rd Base – 28
- By now you have probably heard that the reigning Japanese MVP followed up that greatness with a Triple Crown win. If this was a year ago, I would be predicting a monster contract approaching $200m. Then last year’s foreign market happened and completely collapsed the pipeline. Munetaka Murakami ended up signing for 2/$34m shocking everyone. Sato is a much better and more versatile fielder than Murakami, but has been scouted as having less walk ability and just as many strikeout problems. Of course, then Murakami hit 35 HRs with almost 100 walks…while also hitting .207 with nearly 200 Ks.3 The whole thing has me spooked projection wise. He’ll get more, but not much more on the average. Also not helping his market is that the Yankees probably don’t want another outfielder and neither do the Mets and Dodgers. That could leave him down to the Phillies, Cubs, and Mariners.
- Mariners – 5/$90m
- Adrian Morejon – Closer – 28
- Morejon is younger and better than most people realize. Check out his Baseball savant page (red is good). There are rumors that he could be marketed as a starter, but in reality he’s a closer waiting to happen with 3 years of elite setup under his belt. As much as I would love to pair him with Jhoan Duran, he’s going to want to be the guy somewhere. Because of that, I can’t put him in LA, NY, or PHI. Instead, how about an up and coming team looking to fix their biggest weakness on a player who fits their timeline…
- Nationals – 4/$80m
- David Bednar – Closer – 32
- There is nothing the Yankees like to do more than keep Yankees as Yankees, especially when they are getting to be older Yankees. Which means the top right handed reliever on the market isn’t going to leave.
- Yankees – 3/$63m
- Brandon Lowe – 2nd Base – 32
- Lowe just put up 35 HRs in PNC Park after a 31 HR season in just 134 games the year before in the Yankees Spring Training Complex. Do you know who has an even shorter right field porch for his lefty swing? Yankee Stadium. They’ll overpay him too.
- Yankees – 3/$54m
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Centerfield/2nd Base/3rd Base – 29
- I didn’t watch enough Yankee games to know whether the extreme vitriol toward Jazz was valid, but it seems as though no one cost themselves more money this year than him. On paper, he didn’t do much of anything well. The big difference was his HRs coming back to normal at 19 rather than 31 in 2025. They aren’t likely to come back anywhere but in the Bronx either. He badly needs a season to redeem himself in a lower pressure environment (The Athletic has him at 6/$128m and that’s insane to me).
- Giants – 2/$30m with an opt out after 1 season
- Jake Bauers – 1st Base – 31
- This year’s biggest surprise was Bauers who went from journeyman, to playable, to star in about 3 years. I’m sure the Brewers wish they had him for just one more year, but he is simply not the kind of player they resign. His next team will hope that his high walk numbers remain steady and he has room to improve on his 26 dingers. He is a bad defender though and his .339 BABIP is way more than his career average. Someone is going to give him the bag though, right?
- Mets – 2/$40m (The “Polanco”)
- Clay Holmes – Starting Pitcher – 34
- Holmes was kinda good for the Mets and kinda bad for the Cubs last year. Of course, that could be because he was coming off a career high 165 innings as a starter the year before. Does that mean he’ll be better acclimated this season? One team always comes to mind for situations like this and taking advantage of circumstance…
- Braves – 3/$60m with options each season
- Luis Arraez – 2nd Base – 30
- First it seemed like Luis Arraez was underrated, then he was overrated once he came to the Phillies, and what we end up with is a player who is exactly what everyone thought he was. He’s a contact monster who should probably play in a spacious ballpark rather than the friendly confines of Citizen’s Bank Park. Wrigley and Comerica would probably suit him nicely, but the Cubs already have their 2B.
- Tigers – 3/$45m
- Trevor Rogers – Starting Pitcher – 29
- Based on the traditional stats, Rogers came back down to Earth last year after a phenomenal 2025. However, the full year stats miss that Rogers was basically completely back to form after going on the IL in May when his Ks spiked and his Walks plummeted. After the All-Star Break, it was even better, sporting an 11:1 K/BB ratio (88 to 8 in 13 starts). A savvy team is going to see that and pay for it. While that could be the Padres if they don’t sign Peralta, there’s one team that’s especially in need of good value pitching talent.
- Cubs – 4/$88m
- Kaima Taira – Starting Pitcher/Reliever – 27
- The “Fire Hydrant” is short, big, and has a hose. He’s destined to become a fan favorite somewhere. Maybe it’s a copout, but I’m thinking the White Sox go back to the Japanese well, because that’s where his particular set of skills makes the most sense.
- White Sox – 2/$24m
BONUS: Alec Bohm – 3rd Base/1st Base – 30
- There is a good hitter buried somewhere within the mind and body of Alec Bohm. For his sake, I hope he opts for a smaller market with less pressure and good instructional coaches because it may be what he needs to unlock his talent. Taking more money to go to Texas or Anaheim to die is not something that will help him.
- Twins – 1/$15m with a team option for $15m the next season and a $5m buyout.
- Anyone not signed by the lockout will get re-prognosticated once we know MLB’s new financial terms ↩︎
- Sidenote: He gets $5m if he opts out. ↩︎
- He only played in 127 games too. Over 162 games, he was on pace for 54 dingers and 250 strikeouts. Unbeleivable stuff. ↩︎
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