Philly Front Office

There is a strange disconnect between baseball and the fans and it is based around money. MLB is the only American sports league without a salary cap. That cap creates known restraints on spending. This is “known” by the teams, players, and fans which creates a frenzy at the start of free agency. If there is only so much money to spend then it’s a race by the players to get their contracts and the teams to get their players before the money runs out. Pavlovian fans salivate at the breaking news dopamine hits that buzz our phones. Everyone is ready for the ruckus. It’s fucking awesome.

Not baseball. With no salary cap there is no Black Friday style mad dash to sign free agents. Instead, each team only has its own artificial budget known only to that team’s front office. Fans are only some-what aware of these budgets in the sense they know their team is cheap. So what teams are even in the market and to what extent isn’t known for sure. Teams do not have to spend. Plus, outside of the elite talent, a lot of production is either replaceable or subjectively not worth the extra cash it would take to sign it. Instead of putting the onus on everyone to quickly get deals done, baseball teams have all the power to meander through the off season. They could spend, but without the cap-inflicted competition, there is no urgency.

This does not hold true for everyone obviously. The top guys will have competition and can drive bidding wars. $700m+ contracts don’t happen because someone is good, they happen because multiple teams want a player. Interest on these players is not a secret. Thankfully Juan Soto signed quickly. Bryce Harper did not. Once you get off the top guys though, things can really fall off. Teams have become wiser about using their power and not spending their money, much to the chagrin of players and fans. Gone are the days a player received comparable money to another player based on age and production (arbitration is different).

Let’s use Alex Bregman for an example. He reportedly wants something like 7 years and $210m. He has two rings, plays a good third base, and has solid offensive numbers. If he crushed this past season like he did the 2019 season (MVP runner-up) then you could see him getting like 7 years and $250m. He didn’t. He was solid but not great. He will also be 31 years old. He is not in the Soto tier and he is not a starting pitcher.

First, let’s look at what teams are set at the hot corner. Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, San Francisco, and San Diego are completely set with NYM, Baltimore, Minnesota, Detroit, and KC probably good too. Houston just put themselves on this list with their recent trade for Isaac Paredes (good enough). Theoretically everyone else should at least have some interest. Second, what teams left are trying to win this year and next? Toronto, NYY, LAD, ChiC, Milwaukee, Arizona, Cincinnati, Washington, Seattle, Tampa, Texas, and us. That’s a decent list. But lastly, and most importantly, which of these teams might actually give out a long term, big value contract? Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers…that’s it. The thing is, the Yankees and Dodgers don’t even NEED a 3rd baseman with multi-position players Jazz Chisholm and Max Muncy on their rosters. The Phillies are not going to give him that money for tax reasons. That leaves the Blue Jays as the only team that has a need and the resources to give Bregman what he wants. Without competition, why would they?

So who is paying Bregman 7 years and $210m? No one. How about 5/$150? Maybe the Dodgers with a ton of deferrals? A few teams would bite at 4/$100m, but would Bregman? Probably not. He has two potential outcomes in my opinion. If a few teams like that lower number he could probably get to 5/$125m. If not, he is getting a Cody Bellinger style contract (3/$80m) with opt outs. No one is in any rush to pay him though.

Bregman isn’t the only one. Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso are all stuck without real markets for their services at the prices they want. All 4 (with Bregman) have qualifying offers attached which will cost draft pick compensation. Does any team need them enough to warrant giving up a draft pick AND paying them between $20m and $30m per year for 5-7 years??? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Everyone is currently mad at Dave Dombrowski for not throwing money and prospects away to improve this roster. Why? What transaction that he didn’t make are you mad at? These second-tier free agents do not have a real market. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Teoscar Hernandez were all expecting much bigger deals last year and then the bottom fell out. Teams swooped in with one-year deals because they were good but had no market at their price point. The same thing is happening this year.

The Phillies would LOVE to give Bregman the Bellinger contract. I think that’s the kind of shorter term move they would go over the cap for because it would allow them to move Bohm and not block Aiden Miller. That deal isn’t in discussion yet though. That is the kind of deal that gets tossed around near Spring Training. They would probably give Santander the same one. It just isn’t time yet. We have to see how this plays out.