Philly Front Office

[UPDATE: Parsons finally got his money, but had to be traded to the Packers to get it. In the process, he leveraged this market well beyond what I was expecting at the time. That means the Carter price is only going up]

Jalen Carter, the Eagles ravager of backfields, conqueror of quarterbacks, and all-around defensive menace will become the highest paid defender in the league after he continues to dominate through next season.  Expect him to finish top 3 for Defensive Player of the Year this year and win the award next year.  That is his level as an NFL star.  He will be 25 years old when he is eligible for an extension.  Players like that get PAID.

There are a few things you should know.  NFL rules prohibit extending players until after their 3^rd season in the league.  If the Eagles were allowed to lock up Carter today, they would.  Howie Roseman has a history of extending good players early because it is financially beneficial.  He has learned a valuable lesson that other GMs, like the old man in Dallas, just can’t seem to wrap their heads around.  Great players don’t take discounts.  They want to be viewed as the leaders of their position and paid like it.  However, they will take that extension early.  That is where the value comes in. 

A rising tide lifts all boats.  If an elite player signs the largest extension, the next guy will want to beat it.  2 years after his extension, Carter will no longer be the highest paid player even though he will still be the best.  Was Jalen Hurts the best QB in the league when he signed his then record 5 year $255m extension?  No.  2 years later, what is he ranked? 9^th (in terms of AAV) with Brock Purdy about to pass him.  That’s just good business.

Back to Carter.  His talent and his value transcend the position much like Aaron Donald did before him and Chris Jones does right now.  EDGE defenders get all the love due to raw sack numbers, but a great DT can wreck a game.  Carter gets double teamed nearly every play.  Not only is he still at the advantage in a double, but that is one less offensive lineman for his fellow linemen to worry about.  Milton Williams is having a career year in no small part to constantly being in a 1 on 1 situation through Carter double teams.  Essentially, his comparables are ALL defenders not just DTs.  Scratch that, it is all non-QBs.

Current Leaders

There are two main contract values that players care about, average annual value (AAV) and guaranteed money.  Sure, the overall value matters, but a 6 year contract will look larger than a 5 year contract.  A player may want the shorter contract in order to bite that apple again sooner. 

The current leader in both largest contract and largest guarentee for a non-QB is everyone’s least favorite disappearing magician, Nick Bosa.  His 5 year $170m deal was signed before last season and has an AAV of $34m with $122.5m guaranteed.  He was 26 when he signed his extension.  The current AAV leader is Justin Jefferson at $35m after he signed his 4 year, $140m extension with $110m guaranteed before this season.  He is 25. 

There are other contracts to be aware of as well.  At 31, Aaron Donald had signed a 3 year, $95m deal before the 2022 season that was fully guaranteed.  Chris Jones is currently the highest paid DT after signing a 5 year, $158.75m contract before this season despite being 30 years old.  CeeDee Lamb just leveraged the crap out of Jerry Jones to land a 4 year $136m extension with $100m guaranteed (this is important).  To sum up, Carter will be younger and eligible to extend 3 years after the current largest contract leader signed his deal and 2 years after the AAV leader.

Who is Next?

There are 2 players to be aware of before Carter will be extension eligible:  Ja’marr Chase and Micah Parsons.  Both are eligible for extensions and will likely receive them after this season or even the year after with Carter.

Chase is engaged in a game of hardball with the Bengals.  He almost definitely wants to become the new leader among WRs and was probably waiting out the recent Jefferson deal.  The Bengals are damned if they do and damned if they don’t with Chase considering they need help everywhere else, but employ his best friend, Joe Burrow, at QB.  Burrow could make anyone look good, but makes Chase look exceptional.  If Burrow wants Chase, they extend Chase. Assuming they don’t franchise tag him, Chase is going to end up topping Jefferson.  The real question is by how much?

That question is contingent on who signs first.  Micah Parsons will also be gunning for that highest paid title.  Think of Nick Bosa’s contract as the floor in these negotiations.  Between Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and now Parsons, the Cowboys have done their absolute best to maximize extensions for their players (to the team’s detriment).  Instead of doing the inevitable and making Parsons the highest paid defender now, the Cowboys will likely wait until after Chase signs his contract.  It is even possible that Aiden Hutchinson signs a massive extension this off season, though his injury might affect that.  Either way, the Cowboys are going to get the worst deal they can.  If Chase signs for 5 years at $37.5m AAV ($187.5m total), expect Parsons to want $40m.  I can see him being the first $200m non-QB.  He might also just play out his 5^th year option, which would have a salary around $22m+.  In that case he would join Carter in negotiating the following year (unless he gets the franchise tag.  Don’t doubt Jerry’s ability to fuck this up more).

Jalen Carter

He really is on his way to the top of the non-QB market.  Assuming he sustains this pace or even improves, he will become the highest paid non-QB in football.  Make no mistake, the Eagles will be happy to pay him.  A talent like him is not usually available to teams regularly in the playoffs.  It took a very unusual set of circumstances for Carter to be an Eagle.

Assuming Bosa and Jefferson’s benchmarks get busted this off season, Carter will top them both.  If Parsons does not become the first $200m non-Qb, Carter will.  That is a threshold that every agent will be gunning for.  Since the Eagles will want to go after this extension as soon as they can, this number becomes a sure target that Howie will be aware of.  Carter is worth it.  If Parsons does not sign an extension and plays out his 5^th year with a looming franchise tag, look for Carter to sign right at $200m with Parsons topping that shortly after.  Knowing Howie and knowing Jerry, I would bet my money on that happening.  However, if Parsons hits $200m this off season, then look for Carter to land in the $205m to $210m range.

It should be noted that the 2026 salary cap is projected to be around $290m but could be even higher (thank you Overthecap.com).  The Eagles will also do their best to make the first year a much smaller hit and even incorporate the 4^th year for cap purposes.  My guess is that the deal totals $206.2m but is technically for 6 years as it will include his 4^th year salary.  This will spread the cap hit through another year.  It will come with a massive $75m signing bonus, $150m guaranteed, and the regular option bonuses and void years all designed to make the cap hit as minimal as possible. 

Again, the Eagles will be happy to pay it.

(Big thanks to Spotrac.com and Overthecap.com)