Philly Front Office

Not long after the Phillies underwhelmed with the signing of Max Kepler, Dave Dombrowski held a media session saying the 2025 Phillies were pretty much set. Groans poured out from keyboards far and wide as frustration mounted from an off season that failed to deliver on its promises. The Mets got Soto, the Yankees got everyone else, and Garrett Crochet was in the wrong color red…we signed two injured guys.* Then, almost as if his bones could feel the sarcastic “Trader Dave” jokes reverberating through the Delaware Valley, Sunday morning Dombrowski stood up and yelled “ENOUGH!” His wife then asked if he was okay and he said, “oh sorry, I need to call the Marlins.” Two minutes later he had acquired Jesus Lazardo from Miami.

Simply, this is a great move. Lazardo is a lefty starter coming off an injured and down year, but his 22 and 23 were very good. Assuming full health, he is a #2 or high end #3 starter. He isn’t Garrett Crochet, but he is like 90% Crochet for about 25% the price in prospects. Both pitchers come with 2 years of control and low salary. Both also come with injury concerns (Crochet had 2 Tommy John surgeries while Lazardo battled back issues last year). Lazardo even has a better track record than Crochet albeit with lesser numbers.

The trade itself was Lazardo and an older AA catcher named Paul McIntosh (you are all lucky he isn’t better or you would be subjected to apple puns not unlike Jordan Romano) for Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Though he is highly touted, Caba was part of the second tier of Phillies prospects after Painter, Miller, and Crawford. He is a glove first, second, and third prospect who may never hit very well. He is also very small at 5’9″ and 160 pounds and young as he just turned 19 years old. Most importantly though, he is blocked at the big league level everywhere you look (Turner, Stott, and Miller are going to be your infielders for the foreseeable future). If there was any top prospect to move, it was Caba. Boyd is an interesting guy in that he is SUPER fast and takes a good deal of walks. No power though with likely none coming. He is John Rojas with worse defense but a better eye. I don’t know if that makes him a AAAA player or a 4th outfielder. Either way, we will not be lighting candles for his departure.

In terms of pure numbers of prospects, this was WAAAAY less than what Chicago wanted for Crochet. They wanted Andrew Painter at the deadline and then Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford this offseason. So, either the alpha prospect or 2 top 50 guys who are close to the bigs. Caba is more of a top 100 guy who is 3 years away at best. With this move, we get the starter who is not as good, but keep all of our bigger assets. This is a very solid consolation prize.

We have Luzardo for 2 years paid at arbitration. That is estimated at $8.6m this year (Spotrac) and let’s say $11.3m next year (using Ranger Suarez as a comparable). That’s basically $20m for 2 years of Lazardo. What did lesser pitchers just get on the open market?

• Luis Severino – 3 years, $67m
• Sean Manaea – 3 years, $75m
• Nathan Eovaldi – 3 years, $75m
• Yusei Kikuchi – 3 years, $60m
• Matthew Boyd – 2 years, $29m
• Frankie Montas – 2 years, $34m

You would take Luzardo over all those guys at any of those prices! We get him for basically $10m per year. By the way, there are still about 5 more pitchers out there who are going to make this deal look even better (looking at you Nick Pivetta). Between talent, prospect price, and salary, this was a hell of a move.

The Phillies now boast a starting rotation of

1. Zack Wheeler

2. Aaron Nola

3. Christopher Sanchez

4. Jesus Lazardo

5. Ranger Suarez.

(6. Andrew Painter)

For a big chunk of last year, Ranger looked like the Cy Young front runner. The only reason he is #5 here is because he might be traded. Let’s leave that be for the time being. This is the deepest, best rotation in baseball. Full stop. Last time we could say that we won 102 games and had the best regular season in team history. We haven’t played a game yet, but the doom and gloom needs to stop. We will be good this year.

When you write a speech or make an argument, they tell you to focus on the first thing you say and the last thing (primacy and recency). People do not tend to focus or remember the middle. This off season started off on the wrong foot. The Mets sign Soto and instead of getting Crochet as our first move, we signed Jordan Romano. Had the Luzardo news happened right after Crochet went to Boston, everyone is feeling much better. Because we waited, signed Romano, then signed Kepler, Phillies fans everywhere were distraught. Now everyone is feeling much better. What happened in between? I mean, not much! Did we play any games? No. Did we make any crippling or bad moves? No. We want the off season to be a sprint but it’s really a marathon. What happens first is not the whole story, neither is what happens last. We have to take it as a whole and be ready for next year. We are looking pretty good.

*I can’t help but think about the old Eminem interlude where the music exec says, “You know why Dre’s record was so successful? He’s rappin’ about big-screen TVs, blunts, 40s and bitches. You’re rappin’ about homosexuals and Vicodin”