Philly Front Office

Unlike the other major sports, baseball free agency doesn’t happen all at once.  As the new year approaches though, that doesn’t mean unsigned free agents can all still expect to cash in like it’s still the Winter Meetings.  The market for the bigger names out there is nowhere near what they and you think it is.  It is all about leverage and finances.  Many of these free agents don’t have the leverage because the teams with the finances aren’t bidding.  What we started to see last year and might see a lot more of this year is guys not getting the monster offers they were expecting and instead seeing option heavy deals that allow smaller markets to get involved without long term risk.  To recap the spenders:  Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Giants.  The Phillies are crapped out and the Yankees are probably close.  The Mets and Dodgers have no limits.  The Braves are not traditional spenders and have not been linked to anyone so far in an incredibly quiet off-season but they are running a payroll about $75m lighter than last year. 

I want to break down this issue individually using the top remaining free agents on the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50. 

2. Corbin Burnes – MLBTR predicted a 7 year, $200m contract that seemed seriously light after Max Fried went for 8/$218.  Burnes is a level up on Fried.  A few interesting things have happened since then though.  Most notably, the Mets didn’t sign him yet.  Instead, they have only made rotation upgrades around the edges.  Though they can claim to have 5 legitimate arms, they still don’t have a true #1.  You can make an argument that the Phillies 1-5 are all better than the Mets’ best.  I think they need Burnes, but on paper they are set.  So who else might sign him to a monster contract?  The SF Giants have about $50m less in payroll right now than they ran last year.  They have a need.  The Toronto Blue Jays are running pretty close to last year’s payroll, but they always seem like they want to make a splash.  However, with Vlady 2 and Bichette 2 both unsigned for next year, they are at something of a crossroads.  They also don’t really need another starter, even if everyone could use Burnes.  Who else in the top spending tier needs pitching?  Not the Phillies, Red Sox, or Yankees.  All of a sudden a return to Baltimore doesn’t sound crazy…except they are already running a payroll higher than last year without Burnes.  They do have new ownership, but a short term Burnes contract would run VERY high.  What about the Braves?  They lost Fried and have Strider coming back from TJ surgery.  They need to keep up with the Phillies and Mets.  Based on process of elimination, the edge has to go to the Giants, but the Mets and Braves can’t be ruled out.  He probably ends up with less years than Fried. 

3. Alex Bregman – I talked about this in depth the other day, but his market has really bottomed out.  Burnes at least is still at the top of his game, Bregman is on his way down stats-wise.  The Giants are out on this one with Chapman on board.  The Blue Jays could use him, so could the Dodgers or Mets (if they don’t resign Alonso, Vientos goes to 1st).  None of these teams NEED a 3^rd baseman though.  Seattle could use him and are running a lower payroll than last year by about $15m.  They never spend though.  The Cubs have their top prospect ready to man the hot corner.  Who is giving Bregman the money he wants ($200m+)?  No one is desperate to pay him anything close to his number and it looks like he misplayed his hand with the Astros.  They were offering 6/$156m.  I can’t see him coming anywhere close to that. 

7. Pete Alonso – The only thing that puts Alonso in a better position than Bregman is that his team could still use him.  The Mets have an infield opening, whether at 1^st or 3^rd, but they don’t have to resign Alonso.  They apparently offered him 7/$158m 2 years ago which he turned down.  That contract ain’t coming back.  The Yankees were probably his best hope of a big deal, but they pivoted to Paul Goldschmidt.  Christian Walker went to Houston, Josh Naylor went to Arizona, Nathanial Lowe went to Washington, and Jake Burger went to Texas.  When the musical chairs ended, Alonso didn’t have a seat.  I thought Washington might swoop in like they did with Jayson Werth years ago, but no.  I still see him going back to Queens, but at nowhere near the price he wants.  I think he’s a cornball dufus, but the Mets like that apparently.  If he gets down into the Cody Bellinger 3/$80m with options range (with someone like Seattle), expect the Mets to throw him a bone.

8. Jack Flaherty – Whatever team doesn’t get Burnes will likely pivot to Flaherty with the exception of the Mets.  He is only 29 but with a bad injury history he may be looking for security rather than to break the bank.  I just convinced myself that he will sign with the Braves, but don’t rule out the Giants either after they just miss out on Burnes.

9. Anthony Santander – 44 home runs is some serious power, but he doesn’t do a whole lot more than that.  You really wish he took a few more walks or hit more doubles, but it just isn’t there.  MLBTR has him at 4/$80m and that seems fair.  I think he wants a whole lot more though.  There has been nothing in terms of rumors for his services.  I suspect teams are waiting him out.  There is a huge shortage of outfielders in the league and teams like the Dodgers, Giants, and Braves could really use him.  They aren’t the types to settle for a 1-dimensional player though.  The Mets could use him in a DH/OF rotation to make up for the power they would lose with Alonso.  Toronto feels like a cop out because they should be in on everyone, but they can’t run back last year’s “also ran” roster. 

11. Teoscar Hernandez – He wants 3/$60m-$75m.  He is 3 years older than Santander but plays more passable defense and is more well rounded at the plate.  He wants to go back to the Dodgers and the Dodgers could use him.  Other teams might be scared off by how he performed in Seattle previously and could see this past year as a fluke or the perfect situation.  I see the Braves as a better suiter but they haven’t shown any interest.

Another problem waiting to happen is when the Giants sign one of these guys.  That’s a huge bit of leverage gone for everyone.  I can’t see them signing more than one name on this list. 

One big wildcard is the Mets.  Despite signing Soto to the biggest contract ever, they have had a measured off-season.  As of right now, they are still running a payroll much lower than last year.  Maybe they are keeping room on the roster for next season when Kyle Tucker, Vlady Jr, and Dylan Cease are available?  Maybe they are in on relievers now and their roster is set for the most part?  Or maybe they are just waiting to get better deals instead of bidding against themselves.  They did just defer some of the money they paid to Sean Manaea which was very interesting.  Maybe Uncle Steve wants to get back some of the money he hemorrhaged last season before going nuts again.

Everyone wants predictions, so here it goes:

• Burnes – Mets for 6 years, $210m
• Bregman – Dodgers for 3 years, $90m with options after each year and deferred money galore.
• Alonso – Mets for 4 years, $100m
• Flaherty – Giants for 5 years, $125m (or Blue Jays for the same price)
• Santander – Blue Jays for 3 years, $60m with an opt out
• Hernandez – I realllllly want to say the Braves, but back to the Dodgers 3 years, $60m with an opt out and deferred money.