Philly Front Office

Very conveniently the Phillies look to be done with their off-season maneuvering just as I plan to take stock of the team going into next year. You can’t count out any trades between now and the start of Spring Training, but the current roster is very likely the team that reports to Clearwater come Valentine’s Day. So, gather round as I regale you in facts you probably already know about the 2025 Phillies!

Starting Pitching

It’s the Mariners, the Red Sox, and the Phillies in some order for the best pitching staff in baseball. What the Phillies have that the other 2 do not is a bona fide, no doubt about it, all caps ACE in Zack Wheeler. It’s him, Chris Sale, Tarik Skubel, and probably Paul Skenes in the running for best pitcher in baseball and none have the track record of our guy. Then we go 2-5 with solid, above average arms who could all throw a shutout on any given 5th day and we wouldn’t be all that surprised. You could make an argument that Nola, Sanchez, Suarez, and Luzardo would all be the best starter on the Mets. Just for good measure, top prospect Andrew Painter will be joining the gang come July. We got pitching.

As something to monitor, outside of Painter we do not have much pitching depth. Expect the team to take some flyers on more recovering injured players you may recognize and stick them in AAA. Then there is Taijuan Walker. For everyone hating him right now, stop it. We all know he is bad and does not have a place on this roster, this isn’t news or some hot take. Think of him as a sunk cost lottery ticket. If somehow his off-season throwing program regenerates his fastball a little, he will have some trade value. Cutting him means we have to eat his whole salary, but in a trade whatever amount we don’t have to pay down becomes more money we can use later this year and next. At 2 years $36m he is an unwanted albatross, but what about 2 years $12m for another team? Root for him!

Lineup

For all those who want Schwarber out of the leadoff spot, why? He gets on base and gives us a 1-0 lead on a regular basis. It’s a myth that a high contact/high average guy is who you want in the top spot. A strike out or a walk are both better with the bases empty than with a runner on, but a hit of any kind is significantly better with runners on than bases empty. Why do the Padres bat Luiz Arraez leadoff? Why would anyone want the best contact hitter in baseball at bat with no one to move over? Schwarber walks 2.5x as much as he homers and is constantly either getting on base for the middle of the order or immediately rattling that day’s starter. Having him lead off is one of the few things this lineup can count on every day.

Unless he falls off a cliff again, Trea Turner is batting in the 2 hole. If handedness wasn’t a concern, I think I would want 2023 Bryson Stott in this spot, but Turner is the reality. Being right-handed and a threat to steal is exactly what you want in front of Bryce Harper. Hopefully his hamstring is back to normal.

Bryce is Bryce.

The lineup gets a little wonky at cleanup. Second half Nick Castellanos is fine in this spot, but someone with a higher average and more pop like Teoscar Hernandez would have really been a monster behind Harper. Nick is just such a roller coaster. At #5, it’s probably either Marsh or Bohm depending on the matchup. It may seem crazy, but ideally a resurrection of 2023 Stott is the guy who seizes this spot by the second half.

The bottom of the order should feature a mix of Stott, Realmuto, Kepler, Marchan, and Rojas. Rojas can’t hit against anyone so if he is in, he’s 9. Marchan is a switch hitter who is unfortunately better against lefties. Expect him to pair with a designated starter or 2 to simply limit JT rather than as a split platoon partner. We will either sign another right-handed outfielder or use Weston Wilson to pair with Kepler.

v. Righty Starter v. Lefty Starter

1. Schwarber – DH Schwarber – DH
2. Turner – SS Turner – SS
3. Harper – 1B Harper – 1B
4. Castellanos – RF Castellanos – RF
5. Marsh – CF Bohm – 3B
6. Bohm – 3B Realmuto – C
7. Stott – 2B Wilson/??? – LF
8. Realmuto – C Stott/Sosa – 2B
9. Kepler – LF Rojas – CF

It can’t be understated just how bad the bottom of the lineup was last year. Stott was apparently dealing with an injury that erased the hope from 2023 and Rojas was getting far too many at bats. Marsh should not be allowed to face a lefty this year. Marsh platooning with Rojas in center and likely another platoon in left means we will not have a designated black hole in the lineup every day. In itself, that should greatly improve the team.

Bullpen

I know it shat the bed in the playoffs, but the bullpen was phenomenal most of last year. It will likely be taking a step back this season. It is almost a foregone conclusion that Hoffman and Estevez will not be back. Hoffman especially was outstanding last year, taking the ball against the heart of every lineup every time. His ERA was 1.65 before the final game of the season. We can’t truly replace that.

That’s okay. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering will both move up a level in the pecking order, joining Jordan Romano in the highest leverage situations. Jose Alvarado might be awesome and he might be unpitchable. That’s the Jose Alvarado Experience. We will need another arm at some point, but for right now the situation is fine though not ideal.

One person to keep an eye on come mid-season is Andrew Painter. [Fingers crossed] Assuming good health and performance, even the best arm in the minors does not have a guaranteed spot in this great rotation. The Phillies won’t have Painter wasting his bullets for the Ironpigs, so could he be deployed as a 2-inning fireman reliever like Andrew Miller a decade ago? Moving him and Ranger/Luzardo to the pen come playoff time all of a sudden turns a possible question mark into a behemoth.

Assets

We traded our 4th best prospect (who also happened to be very blocked) this off-season. That’s it. We still have Painter, Aiden Miller, Justion Crawford, and Eduardo Tait with last year’s top picks hopefully showing some flash and moving up themselves. You could see all 4 making the Phillies at some point…but you could also see Crawford or the newer guys moving in a trade for some serious relief. Basically, we have the bullets if needed.

What we seemingly don’t have is cash. Thanks to the luxury tax rules, every dollar spent is $2.10 on the balance sheet. Even to a billionaire, that’s hard to ignore. It’s not like the Phillies are cheap. They will probably have a top 3 payroll when all is said and done with about $360m out of pocket. The spending is likely over for this season with maybe about $5m behind glass in case of emergency. Middleton isn’t going to light money on fire, but he will spend what he has to if he has to.

Despite all the winter doom and gloom, this team is still very good. We won 95 games last year without a 5th starter, losing a red-hot Turner for 6 weeks (and never getting his speed fully back), Castellanos sucking for the first half, Bohm sucking for the second half, and Stott sucking all year. Mediocre teams can’t beat those problems. We enter the season probably the favorite in the NL East and just behind the Dodgers overall.

Remember, only 7 weeks until pitchers and catchers!!!