Philly Front Office

Black Monday is always a fun day in the NFL. Well, it won’t be very fun for all the coaches and GMs who either get canned or are the subject of tepid press-releases-of-confidence that are negated simply by being written. It also won’t be fun for the players getting replaced in the first official mock drafts now that the non-playoff draft order is set. It also isn’t fun for the Miami Dolphins. So, I guess I mean it is specifically fun for me. Yay!

Black Monday Part 1: No Confidence

Black Monday Part 2: Draft Needs

The NFL flex schedules its final week in order to assure teams with something to play for are active at the same time. Yesterday the 4:30 games featured the Dolphins at the Jets while the Broncos played the Chiefs. The Dolphins needed the Broncos to lose in order to go to the playoffs and for their game to mean something. In theory this is a great idea and has created some real juicy drama over the years. The problem yesterday was that the Broncos started beating up on the Carson Wentz led Chiefs immediately. It was 14-0 after about 10 minutes and 24-0 at the half. The score did not go unnoticed on the Dolphins sideline.

At some point in the second half Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill decided he was no longer available to play. This was news to Dolphins Coach Mike McDaniel who was not aware of any injury to his star player. Hill didn’t play the rest of the game. Afterwards, a perturbed McDaniel did not have any in depth answers but gave the press the blunt facts: Hill took himself out. Hill on the other hand stated that he had to do what was best for his family and that he was “out.” Despite football players often using the words “teammates” and “family” interchangeably, this was definitely not what Hill meant.

So, Hill wants out of Miami. I won’t get into his personal issues or get on a soapbox about player loyalty, but I will talk about his contract. See the Dolphins renegotiated Hill’s contract before this season because he had already hinted at wanting out. He signed a 3 year, $90m extension that guaranteed him serious money in 2025. Well now wait a second, isn’t that the upcoming season in which he does not want to play “fins up”? Why yes savvy reader, it is.

Miami is in a bind here. You can’t bring him back. Players understand holdouts and want their fellow teammates to get paid. They do not sympathize with teammates who quit like Hill did. Hill has to go, but how? Here are the options, descending by how bad they are…

• Cut Hill Into the Sun As Soon As Possible: The knee jerk reaction of all Dol-fans this morning is also easily the worst suggestion. Cutting him would accelerate about $56m to the top of the cap sheet. Kiss contention goodbye when you have one unrostered player taking up 2 elite salaries. Not happening.
• Post-June 1 Cut His Ass: The Dol-phan with some sophistication told his angry friend, “Don’t worry, if we cut him later, we can split his cap hit over 2 seasons.” Though not wrong, it would still mean about $40m on the cap this year and another $15m in 2026 (it could be a little less up front but for other out of pocket cash reasons, probably won’t happen). This is definitely not ideal, but if they can’t find a trade partner they might have to or things will get VERY messy. By messy I mean that he will probably hold in next year. If he holds out, he won’t get paid. If he holds in, he just poisons the team. Then they suspend him. Then there is a grievance. Like I said, messy.
• Trade Him Into the Sun As Soon As Possible: No matter what, the Dolphins are on the hook for a minimum of around $28m in cap and this has to be accounted for. The rest of the money, which is tied to other bonuses and actual salary, would be traded along with Hill to whatever team wants him.
• Post-June 1 Trade His Ass: Similar to option 2 above, this would spread his cap hit of $28m over 2 years, resulting in about $16m next year and $12m the following year to play for someone else. This is the Dolphins best case scenario.

Who actually wants Tyreek Hill? This is where we relate this back to the Eagles. Pairing him with Brown and Smith?!?!?!? ABSOLUTELY NOT. There is no way in the world the Eagles would take Hill. The team has built a culture that does not tolerate bad teammates. Most of the better organizations in the league probably have the same policy. It is one thing to be young and immature, warranting a second chance but that does not apply to 30-year-old Hill who couldn’t even play with Patrick Mahomes. Throw in his incredibly shady personal life (understatement alert) and you have a guy who will have trouble finding a team he likes and wants him. Then there is the $28m Hill is owed next year that will come too. You are telling me that a contending team wants to pay that much to an a-hole who quit on his team?

There will always be teams like the Raiders and Jets who take a Backstreet Boys approach to talent (don’t care who you are, where your fr…you get it), but they are NFL jail. There is no Tom Brady this time to take in a guy like Hill like he famously did with Randy Moss (everyone forgets Moss quit on Oakland). Who is trading real assets and paying Hill?

PS…I bet it’s Baltimore after they lose to Buffalo in 2 weeks.