Philly Front Office

Every year the radio goes nuts about the batting order. “How can you have Kyle Schwarber leading off!!!” they yell despite knowing exactly why Schwarber leads off. He gets on base. A lot. He just doesn’t fit the prototypical ideal of a leadoff hitter. They want speed. Schwarber might have negative speed despite being visibly slimmer each of the last two years. They want Trea Turner. For the first time since coming here, the actual reporters are, well, reporting that this might finally happen. What does that mean?

Let’s start with some truths that Phillies manager Rob Thompson holds to be self-evident. If you can alternate handedness, you must alternate handedness. If you are a veteran, you will get the benefit of the doubt over younger players. No drastic changes day to day. Platoons must be platooned unless you absolutely don’t need to platoon (this is for Bryson Stott specifically).

The whole decision is much more about Turner than it is Schwarber. In fact, even Bryce Harper is affected by this much more than Kyle. To say Trea’s tenure in Philly has been a roller coaster is to give the engineers building those things too much credit. We all remember Turner’s start in red pinstripes before turning it around. But do you remember how good he was while the Phillies were torching the first half last season? .349/.395/.546!!! Those were MVP numbers through the first 57 games before getting hurt. Combine that with his previous second half and that’s a .318 average, 23 steals, 26 homers, 31 doubles, .550 slug, and a .900+ OPS in 124 games. Those aren’t fellow leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna numbers, but they are close.

Speaking of Acuna, do you know why he leads off for Atlanta? Because he’s a problem. His 2023 MVP year was ridiculous, but in other years he has hit for a solid average, can hit for extra bases, and steals bags. There is a reason the Braves don’t have Matt Olson leading off despite running high OBPs. He is not the all-around threat of Acuna.

Before we go into the lineup, I want you to think about another leadoff hitter, Luis Arraez. Arraez has won 3 straight batting titles including last season. That’s nuts. Do you know what his slugging percentage was last year? .398. Remember, slugging percentage is your average amount of bases per at bat. When he’s on, Turner is slugging exponentially higher than Arraez. To put it in a practical sense, Arraez is going to hit a lot of singles and not much more. A leadoff hitter’s job is to get on base, but singles are much more beneficial than a walk when people are on base. If no one is on base, they are exactly the same. Further, Arraez has 20 stolen bases…ever. He is not getting to second unless someone puts him there. A leadoff double or single and a steal, however, is much different. If that’s Acuna or Turner, well now the Braves and Phillies have a runner in scoring position for Riley/Ozuna/Olson and Harper/Bohm/Schwarber with no double play possible. The Padres batting order has to do more work to score that run. Now let’s say they put Jackson Merril and his 31 doubles at leadoff. Wouldn’t putting contact hitter extraordinaire Arraez behind him make a ton more sense with Tatis and Machado ready to come to the plate? He’s going to have even more to hit!!! It’s not like they want to put two men on for those two guys! This is not dissimilar to wasting so many Schwarber home runs. A solo home run is great, but I think I’d rather have Harper and contact hitter Bohm on base with Kyle at the plate.

Most Likely Everyday Lineup (facing average righty/lefty)

1. Trea Turner (R) – It’s time. The Phillies have gone as far as they can with Schwarber at the top. Schwarber is successful at it and the team wins, but the hope is that Turner unlocks something more.
2. Bryce Harper (L) – Having Harper behind Turner might limit Turner’s aggressiveness trying to steal second. I do not like Harper in the 2 hole for this reason and…
3. Alec Bohm (R) – There is the potential that teams walk Harper to get to Bohm. Bohm needs to make them pay. With Schwarber behind him though, he should get more to hit.
4. Kyle Schwarber (L) – Kyle has hit 131 homers as a Phillie with only 302 RBIs. Matt Olson has 117 HRs with 340 RBI in that same span despite playing in 20 more games. It just seems like we are leaving runs on the table.
5. Nick Castellanos (R) – What will we get from Castellanos this year? No one knows. From the end of May on last year, Castellanos was hitting like the guy they paid for, right around an .850 OPS. Let’s see if we can get that for a full year.
6. Bryson Stott (L) / Edmundo Sosa (R) – Can we just let Stott hit this year please???
7. JT Realmuto (R) – He is still an above average catcher, but I need him in my bottom 3. Ideally, he even hts 8th or 9th, but again, Rob Thompson isn’t doing that to his veteren catcher. We would probably even see him hitting 6th over Stott if not for the must have splitting of lefties and righties.
8. Max Kepler (L) / Weston Wilson (R) – They are saying that Kepler is an everyday player, but you can’t ignore that Wilson crushes lefties. He is too good a platoon partner to keep on the bench.
9. Brandon Marsh (L)/Johan Rojas (R) – Marsh didn’t hit lefties at all last year, and goes into prolonged spells of total ineptitude. That being said, Rojas can’t hit anyone.

The above is making a lot of assumptions about Rob Thompson. Like I mentioned, he really likes to vary the batting order L/R/L/R. But what if he didn’t have to do that every time? What if he really wanted Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to have the most ideal hitting conditions? How about this…

Ideal Lineup

1. Turner – With Schwarber behind him, he should be able to run with ease. Instead of just filling that spot with a walk though, no team will want to put two guys on for Turner. Schwarber at 2 unlocks a ton.
2. Schwarber – Dropping him down to 2 still gets him opportunities with a runner on base, but also makes it a lot harder to pitch around Harper. He is going to get a ton more pitches to see in fear of walking him for the big man.
3. Harper – Sure hitting Harper at 2 will give him to the plate sooner but might also tempt teams to walk him to face Schwarber instead, especially with a lefty pitching. No one wants to put anyone on to face Harper.
4. Bohm – Much like last year, he is going to get his opportunities. He just can’t freak out.
5. Stott – Stott looked like he had .300 potential two years ago then fell off a cliff last year. If he gets that back, it could be like Luis Arraez light hitting 5th and cleaning the bases up nice.
6. Castellanos – Casty gonna Casty.
7. Marsh – That power is real when he’s hitting and getting it to the plate sooner than 9th would be ideal.
8. Realmuto – He is getting more and more prone to non-competitive at bats and needs to be at the bottom. I have no idea how he managed to hit .260 last year when it seemed like he didn’t know what he was doing.
9. Kepler – If he returns to form, how great would it be to have a professional hitter in front of Turner in the leadoff spot?

Let’s get crazy

Of course, the downside to all of this is Turner slumping again. In that case, let’s not just assume we go back to what we did last year (though that’s exactly what they are likely to do. Let’s have some fun…

1. Bryson Stott – If he’s hitting, he is nearly as dynamic a lead off guy as weaponized Turner. A little less of everything, but the guy has a great approach and sees a lot of pitches.
2. Alec Bohm – It is all about contact. He should see better pitches with Harper behind him anyway.
3. Kyle Schwarber – Make them pay! Same reasons as above hitting in front of Harper.
4. Bryce Harper – I know it isn’t ideal having Harper so far down in the order, but this will give him opportunities to be very dynamic at the plate.
5. Nick Castellanos – He has a knack for big hits. That’s all I got.
6. Brandon Marsh (facing R) or Trea Turner (facing L) – down in the order spark to the lineup
7. Trea Turner (facing R) or Weston Wilson (facing L) – Wilson could really make a name for himself in the Gregg Dobbs/Chris Coste mold as a guy who gets big hits in the few times he plays.
8. Max Kepler (facing R) or JT Realmuto (facing L) – These guys at 8 seems right.
9. Rafael Marchan (facing R) or Johan Rojas (facing L) – I am very down on JT and don’t want him anywhere near a tough lefty. Marchan at least can switch hit.

I don’t mind change, but Rob Thompson does. If they go with Turner at the top this year, they have to give it time. This is not something they should abandon after a few weeks. He knows how to do it. The Schwarber then Harper idea must happen. I see no benefit to the lineup by giving them a reason to walk Harper. I guess we’ll see. About 5 weeks until Opening Day!