Philly Front Office

The Eagles had a good day yesterday. We didn’t sign any free agents and we lost 4 starters on defense, but it was still a good day. How is that possible? Because the Eagles were ready for this.

This isn’t official, but the Eagles have two basic roster building philosophies from what I understand. The first is drafting good people you can trust (no problems with anyone there). The second, and the one we care about here, is that they only put big money into elite level talent. Teams get themselves into trouble by overpaying players you would only consider “good.” Williams and Sweat fall into this “good” category rather than elite talent like Jalen Carter. A well-run team should be able to replace “good” players through the draft. Elite talent is not easily restocked and MUST be extended as soon as possible. No one wants to be the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinatti Bengals overpaying every star because they waited too long (we will deep dive into this another time)

Milton Williams

After early reports that he was going to Carolina, Williams ended up in New England signing for a gargantuan 4/$104m. Bonkers. I had him pegged at around $22m per year, which would have made him the 10th highest paid DT. Instead, the Patriots gave him $26m per year making him the 3rd highest paid DT in terms of AAV and total contract, behind only Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins.

Anyone who thought Williams would be back did not understand the market at this position. He was NEVER coming back, and the Eagles knew this. We currently have 3 starting level DTs in Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Moro Ojomo. If you don’t know Ojomo yet, you will. Despite only back up level playing time, he has steadily improved. This is not unlike Williams himself who went from basically unknown in the league to the contract he received yesterday. Both can thank Jalen Carter for absorbing double teams like a magnetic sponge.

Speaking of Carter, he is the real story here. He can’t be extended until next year but will likely become the highest paid non-QB when he does. Carter is the kind of elite talent that the Eagles will move the world to keep. Williams simply isn’t that. The Patriots are paying him like he is.

Josh Sweat

Jonathan Gannon took another Eagle and I couldn’t be happier about it. Josh Sweat signed in Arizona for 4/$76.5m. That’s a little over my original prediction of 4/$72m but fits the Super Bowl bump narrative. Great for him. Sweat went from possibly being cut to earning life changing money and a ring. He has a secret though, he isn’t very good.

Sweat isn’t bad, but he is exactly the kind of player a team like the Eagles do not pay whereas a team like the Cardinals does. They are paying $19m per year on replaceable talent. Speaking of which, lost in Sweat’s 3 Super Bowl sacks was the play of Jalyx Hunt. He was all over Mahomes on every drop back. The converted safety has only been a rusher for like 2 years. Pencil him in for close to ten sacks next year taking Sweat’s lost snaps. He is better than Sweat right now.

Isaiah Rodgers

Rodgers goes to the Vikings on a 2 year, $15m contract. That’s a pretty good deal for him considering he was very clearly a backup last season. Rodgers filled in admirably whenever called upon, but I don’t think anyone thought he would be getting $7.5m AAV.

There is probably more of a lesson to be learned on this non-signing than the other two. Whereas Williams and Sweat were destined to leave, Rodgers probably had a number in which they would have taken him back. $7.5m was obviously over that number. With Darius Slay leaving, the Eagles are in need of a CB3 behind Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Rodgers could have been that person, but now it will fall to Kelee Ringo. Maybe they would have had Rodgers back at $5m AAV? Maybe it would have been Ringo all along with no extra money going out? It will be interesting to see what the Eagles do at this position now with even another high draft pick possible.

Oren Burks

He signed with the Bengals for 2/$5m. I was really upset about this yesterday but the rumor was that he wanted the chance to start. For someone considered the goat of the Super Bowl for SF 2 years ago, what he did this year is nothing short of heart warming. Love this guy.

Kenny Pickett

The local boy won his ring and now gets to try to run a team again. Pickett was traded to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a 5th round pick and project QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Probably even bigger is that $2.5m was cleared from the cap sheet with the trade. Tanner McKee now steps into the unquestioned backup QB role.

This was simply great business by Howie. Pickett was originally acquired from Pittsburgh in a swap of the #98 pick for the #120 pick in last year’s draft. We now have more draft ammo and more money to work with while allowing the likely better McKee to get better reps and possibly audition for his own trade after next season. McKee plays at a minimum salary too. This frees up extra money elsewhere.

This isn’t even a bad deal for Cleveland. They are in the midst of the Deshaun Watson disaster and he probably will not play next season after tearing his ACL. Most backup QBs cost between $5 and $10m. The Browns get one with upside and starter experience for only $2.5m. It’s not like they have high expectations anyway.

Compensatory Picks

Comp picks are awarded based on a complex formula that essentially awards teams who lost free agents, the higher priced AAV the better the pick. Of course, if you sign a free agent, that possibly cancels out the player you lost and a pick will not be awarded. The Eagles did very well yesterday.

The Eagles are very aware of the comp pick system (the Giants are not based on how they treated losing Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney last year) and will likely not target anyone who will mess with their anticipated haul. Comp picks are not finalized until after the season, but assuming the Eagles do not sign anyone, they are in for at least 3 picks right now. Milton Williams looks to be very clearly worth a 3rd round comp pick, Josh Sweat has an outside chance at being a 3rd rounder but will likely be a 4th, and Rodgers looks like a 6th. Considering Williams was drafted in the 3rd round and Sweat in the 4th, this is incredible business. We basically rented their talents without their value depreciating. Mekhi Becton is still out there to possibly earn us another 4th round pick.

What Does This Mean?

So how did we end the day better than we started despite losing players? First, we didn’t overpay. The Eagles salary cap situation is fine right now, but will get tight next season when they will look to extend Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. Both guys are under contract, but we don’t want to be like the Dallas Cowboys and drag this out. Those guys are the types that you want to keep and need to be paid accordingly. Those boys are getting big time deals. The following year the same will be true for Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. It has only been one year, but those two have STAR written all over them. They will also need to be paid at the top of the market.

Second, we likely have 4 extra draft picks that we didn’t have before. To offset the huge extensions coming, we need to continually restock the guys behind them. As long as you can replace guys like Williams and Sweat with guys like Ojomo and Hunt, there will be enough money to go around to pay the stars. Yesterday the Washington Football Team spent three high draft picks on Leramy Tunsil. Tunsil is good, but that team is getting older rather than younger around Jaylen Daniels. We gained draft picks and they lost them.

Third, we gained cap space! Assuming Brandon Graham retires, we left the super Bowl with about $18m to spend. Zack Baun should take away about $4m of that space. After the Pickett trade, it should be up around $16.5m. If BG comes back, it should be right back where it was even with signing Baun! Unbelievable stuff. And, oh yeah, because we are post-June 1 cutting Slay and Bradberry, that adds another $6m for extensions this summer.

What to Expect Today

Based on what we saw with Burks and Rodgers, I can’t see Mekhi Becton coming back. The Eagles just don’t want extra money pushed into the coming extension cycles. I would not be surprised if we signed some guys on 1-year deals like Baun and Becton last year, but no major splashes.

The issue to watch is Dallas Goedert. He wants a new contract but we are not going to extend him. They will draft his replacement this year, but having a rookie starter tight end is not ideal. Trading Goedert now comes with a massive $21m cap hit, $12m more than he already has. If he gets traded, it will not be until after June 1 when that cap hit can be spread over two years and actually lowered for the current year. There is just no way Howie torpedoes $12m in cap space AND leaves a position open. I expect a one-year deal to be worked out, but I am not betting my house on it.

Trust Howie, he knows what he is doing.