Philly Front Office

The NFL Draft is still a month away, but that won’t stop us from writing and consuming mock drafts every damn day, now will it? If you aren’t cool like us and are wondering why we would waste our time on such fool’s errands, it’s because it has us thinking about all the crazy possibilities and dreaming on the future. It gets our hopes up, and in the middle of March, who doesn’t like to get their hopes up? Plus, there is the added benefit of being able to yell I CALLED IT for even a single correct pick. The one real downside of these mock drafts is that they usually are only focused on what the writer thinks the team needs rather than what it will actually do. This is especially true with the Eagles. Howie Roseman has rules.

Howie Will Try to Trade Out of the First Round

There is a very strong chance that we all spend 4 hours together on April 24 just for the Eagles to not make any selections. If I were a betting man, maybe I wouldn’t put up my house, but definitely my car on this. There is just too much value in this pick specifically for other teams and not for us. Wait, what?

First round picks come with a 5th year option that other picks do not. Why does this matter? That extra year of control could be huge for a team picking a QB and either hasn’t made a decision on an extension or has made that decision but wants the extra year of bargaining power. This is particularly big this year because it looks like only Cam Ward is a sure thing to go very early in the draft. Assuming he goes to the Titans, that means the Browns, Giants, Steelers, Saints, and Jets could be looking to trade back in to the end of the first round to grab their QB. The Rams and Raiders could be looking too. That’s possibly 7 teams looking for a QB. Could Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart, and Quin Ewers tempt anyone to move back into the end of the first round for that extra year?

In the 2018 draft, this exact situation happened with the Eagles trading #32 to the Ravens who selected Lamar Jackson. For their trouble, the Eagles received #52 and an extra second round pick the next year (they also swapped 4th rounders). Selecting in the second round is a lot cheaper than drafting in the first round. Just between picks 32 and 33 is about $2m in difference. Going to the middle of the round could save the Eagles around $3m. We know the Eagles care about this right now.

…Unless He Trades Up

If there is a particular player who is falling down the draft board, Howie is the type of GM to go get him. He has traded up A LOT over the years including in 3 of the past 4 years (the 4th year he traded up in the second round). Here’s the thing, he has the ammo to go get almost anyone he wants. Much has been made of the Eagles extra picks both this season and next season and there is no way we are making all of those 20ish selections. Howie is going to be in crack head mode trying to either trade up or consolidate picks for better selections.

In the first round last year, Buffalo and Kansas City swapped the 28th pick for the 32nd pick and essentially only exchanged a 4th for a 3rd to do it. The Eagles have 4 extra 5ths this year plus a ton of extra mid-rounders next year to swap. A 3rd round pick alone can likely move us anywhere in the 20s. However, unless it is for a falling offensive lineman, I can’t see us doing this.

Who Will Not Be Selected in the First Round?

If the Eagles move up or stay put, I can promise you it will not be to select a running back or a linebacker. That’s a 100% guarantee and true of all drafts, not just this year. I can tell you with about 90% certainty that it will not be to select a tight end or safety either, and that 10% is only because we are literally the last pick in the first round. Any higher and it would be back at 100%. All of you hoping for Tyler Warren or Malachi Starks…I’m sorry. Howie only uses first round picks on premium positions like QBs, receivers, linemen, or corners. That’s it. The last time the Eagles selected any other position in the first round was tight end Keith Jackson in 1988. Positional value is not something Howie is going to ignore.

That value is the difference between signing a guy in free agency versus paying them on a rookie contract. Maybe the best linebacker in football signed for 3/$51m contract this off season (Zack Baun). We also signed the best RB in football to a 3/$37.5m contract last year. That’s nothing! Milton Williams might be the 15th best DT in the league and he just received $104m. Even if we have holes at tight end and safety, they will not be filled in the first round. In the second round, that’s completely different.

What Do We Need?

This is separated into wants and needs. Wants are future replacements. Needs are positions we are thin at right now. We NEED a tight end assuming we are motivated to ship out Dallas Goedert. Even if he stays, his heir apparent needs to get in the building ASAP. The Eagles have done this in the past with both Goedert and Zach Ertz. The other position of need is safety. Only Reed Blankenship projects as a real starter this season. Word came out recently that we were in on Justin Reid before he signed with the Saints for more money. Sydney Brown is on the team, but I don’t think Fangio trusts him at all (even if he is a fan-favorite waiting to happen).

Our wants are always on the lines. Lane Johnson probably has two years left after his recent extension. That is inching ever closer to a NEED. Trading up in the first round would only be for Lane’s eventual replacement. We are also becoming increasingly thin at DT. Jalen Carter isn’t going anywhere and we still have Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo, but their stays could be short lived. Howie will jump at the chance to grab a falling Walter Nolan if he can or just grab another raw athlete like he did with Milton Williams. EDGE rusher is similarly thin, even with recent signings. Jalyx Hunt is ready to step in for Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith isn’t going anywhere, but having a deep pass rush rotation is always a strong recipe for success.

Does the School or Conference Matter?

The school someone went to shouldn’t matter, but it certainly did for a long time. Before 2021 the Eagles barely invested in major SEC programs like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. LSU still isn’t high up on our radar, but the other two have become Eagle nesting areas. We did pick Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo over Terrion Arnold of Alabama last year and Hunt was a 3rd rounder out of Houston Christian, but Howie has fully opened his recruiting area to the SEC at this point.

Where are we not picking from? We haven’t taken any high picks from traditional PAC-10 schools in a few years after several busts like Andre Dillard, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Sidney Jones. Throughout the 2010s, schools like USC, Stanford, and the Washingtons seemed to have been heavily scouted only to be replaced with the SEC this decade.

You can probably count out traditional powers LSU and never Ohio State. Why? I couldn’t tell you. The last significant pick from either was Bennie Logan (LSU – 3rd round – 2013) and Bobby Hoying (Ohio State 3rd round – 1996). First and Second round picks are even further down the line with Bo Strange (LSU – 2nd round – 1961) and Keith Byars (Ohio State – 1st round – 1986). It’s probably just a coincidence, but there have been a LOT of pros to come out of those schools and none of them are Eagles.

Flyers

Yes, our hockey team has a lot of picks, but the Eagles like to use later round picks on guys with good traits but significant flaws in hopes that they can overcome their obstacles and become bargains. Jordan Mailata might be the best lineman in football right now, but he was merely an enormous ball of athletic clay when he was drafted. Then there is the fast undersized WR like Ainais Smith, John Hightower, and the infamous Quez Watkins. Speed will always have a place in the NFL if you can catch the ball. My favorite flyer though is the late round QB. Sure Clayton Thorston and Matt Barkley were busts, but right now Tanner McKee looks primed to be a solid backup before getting us a 2nd round pick in a trade next offseason. Then there’s former 3rd round pick Nick Foles [smokes cigarette].

Late Round Deals

Finally, there are the seemingly insignificant moves that Howie pulls on Day 3 that prove bigger later. There are two known draft value equations out there. One is that 2 late round picks can move you up a round, and the other is that a late round pick this year is worth one earlier round pick next year. With four 5th round picks this year, you can easily see Howie moving two of them for a 4th rounder. At the same time, one of those 5ths could be used to get a 2026 4th. I would be happy to be that Howie does both before moving the last 5th for two 6ths and then punting them into next year.

Draft Prediction

The Eagles move out of the first round, possibly even with Cleveland at #33, but more likely with LV at #37. With this pick they take either the best available DT or TE. Howie moves up from 64 to take a raw and athletic OT with the next pick, possibly using next year’s 3rd rounder as the carrot. Howie moves back from the 3rd round and into the 4th where he eventually makes 3 selections, including a WR, CB and S.