Philly Front Office

The Sixers currently own the 5th worst record in the league, two games back of 4th and two games up on 6th. Nothing is guaranteed though. If the standings stay as they are, but two teams jump the Sixers in the lottery, the pick goes to the Thunder thanks to the ill-fated Al Horford salary dump (I’ll write about Al Horford one day when they make crying-proof laptops). We have a roughly 64% chance to keep the pick. Let’s talk about that other 36%.

Joel Embiid’s Health

Embiid’s health is going to be pivotal to all three entries in this series, but no more important than if we don’t keep the pick. Yesterday, news came out that the big guy will be getting arthroscopic surgery on his ailing knee. This is a minimally invasive procedure used mostly to see inside the knee and clean out the joint. Despite Shams saying he is expected to make a full recovery, this is only from the current surgery, not his overall knee ailment. This is NOT some miracle procedure. As the Rights to Ricky Sanchez Podcast (see you on May 12th) said, if there was a miracle procedure out there with a short recovery time, they would have done it already. You can’t rule out that Embiid simply thinks he needs surgery, and this is the easiest procedure to do. Remember, the Sixers have been adamant that he does not need surgery at all! Maybe just doing something will give a placebo effect that gives him the confidence to go out and learn his new normal. I am not optimistic he will ever be what he was again.

The Draft and Off-Season Planning

With the ping pong balls being especially cruel this season, the Sixers only have the 35th pick. I won’t try to predict who this might be, but we can hope he will be at least a rotational piece. This will make the guaranteed roster Embiid, Paul George, Maxey, McCain, Adem Bona, the 35th pick, and…Andre Drummond. Yeah, there is no way he doesn’t pick up his $5m option, but we can all cross our fingers. Justin Edwards isn’t technically guaranteed, but he isn’t going anywhere. Kelly Oubre has a player option for roughly $8m that he will probably decline. The big question is what to do about Quentin Grimes.

• Let’s talk money. Some numbers to know going in:
• Salary Cap: $154.5m
• Luxury Tax Threshold: $187.9m
• First Apron: $195.9m
• Second Apron: $207.8m
• Embiid, George, Maxey, and McCain combined: $149m.
• Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception: $14.1m – only if you are over the cap but under the tax line
• Taxpayer MLE: $5.7m – only if you are over the tax line
• Biannual Exception: around $5m

Grimes is a restricted free agent, meaning he can sign an offer sheet with any team that has the cap space, but the Sixers would have the right to match that contract. The only team expected to have enough space is Brooklyn (around $90m), who only have Nic Claxton and Cam Johnson signed to anything significant. The Sixers can technically offer Grimes anything from a max contract to a $6-9m qualifying offer depending on if he meets the criteria of a starter, but the real worry is matching an offer from the Nets. The pickins are SLIM in free agency. Almost anyone with a player option is likely to stay put with their current teams. This means the Nets will likely be bidding on Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, and Grimes. Here’s hoping they like the other two. The worry is that Brooklyn could offer a number so large that it would scare off the Sixers. What is that number? Other teams can offer some version of the mid-level exception, maxing out at 4/$56.4m. I figure a 4/$80m contract is a fair number for both team and player. Spotrac sees it at closer to 4/$100m. Are the Sixers going to match anything higher than that? They probably shouldn’t. Moving a $20m per year guy is significantly easier than a $30m per year guy. If Brooklyn throws 4/$120m at him, he is good as gone. It would really be depressing if we moved Caleb Martin’s great contract for basically a second round pick swap.

Let’s table Grimes for a minute. Because a team needs to roster at least 12 players, the NBA imposes a minimum cap hold for each spot for tax purposes. This is roughly $1.2m. The Big 4 plus Edwards, Bona, Drummond, the 35th pick, and 4 roster spots comes to about $164m. Then there are cap holds on free agents. The two we would have to keep until they signed either with us or elsewhere are Grimes for $13m and Oubre for about $10.5m. That takes us just below the tax line. We would be over the cap, but we could use the non-taxpayer MLE of $14.1m on a free agent assuming we renounce everyone else and release guys like Ricky Council IV, Lonnie Walker, and Jared Butler with Eric Gordon declining his player option. That MLE could be used to sign someone like Guerschon Yabusele or perhaps another free agent. The margin between being able to offer the taxpayer versus non-taxpayer MLE is razor thin. As for Kelly Oubre, we have his early bird rights. This means the max we can offer him is 175% of his current $8m salary, so about $14m.

Do We Want to Compete?

This hinges almost entirely on Embiid. He will undergo the surgery and be reevaluated in 6 weeks (story of our lives, right?). By that point we will know our lottery status but will still have another 6 weeks before free agency. The Sixers will have around 3 months to plan and then evaluate Embiid. If we lose the pick this year, that means we have it next year.

Let’s say Embiid looks good enough to go for it. Well, we would want to build the best lineup possible around him. This will take some shenanigans. Once you use the non-taxpayer MLE, you are hard-capped at the first apron. So, if we use the MLE, it is going to be very difficult to bring back Grimes AND Oubre without getting significant discounts. The hope is that Grimes just comes back on his Qualifying offer of around $9m, Yabu takes around $8m, and Oubre settles for $12m. This would put us at $189.4m and only about $6.5m to fill out the roster (plus 2.4m for 1 or 2 roster spot holds). That is cutting it close. Andre Drummond not taking his $5m would be HUGE!!! It would allow that money to go to Yabu and Oubre on more realistic deals.

Assuming these deals, the best case scenario is Embiid starting with George, Maxey, Oubre, and McCain. Grimes, Yabu, Edwards, Bona, and #35 coming off the bench. Guys like Jared Butler, Lonnie Walker, Council and other Vets could be signed to the minimum. That’s a contender with a healthy Embiid. We may have to choose only 1 or 2 of Yabu, Oubre, and Grimes though, depending on what happens in restricted free agency.

Let’s Say Embiid is Done

If Embiid looks like he did this year, then things will have to change drastically. He will be basically done and staring down a possible medical retirement the next season. His salary will be on the books, but we will not be even an outside contender, possibly just barely holding on to a low playoff seed as currently constructed. If that’s the case, the team has to commit to a new direction.

Embiid and his albatross contract cannot be traded. It’s not impossible, but it is INCREDIBLY unlikely. It’s the worst contract in the league. Paul George on the other hand, that could be movable. It is still bad, but at least he is still playing. We might get another distressed asset in return, but a team could convince themselves that PG gives them some kind of edge. Again, it is not likely, but it is possible. Would Phoenix do a Bradley Beal for PG trade? [vomits] Maybe Dallas or Atlanta? A team would definitely need to send us something toxic, but keeping PG doesn’t seem good for either party on a non-contender. The main goal wouldn’t be to get value, but to either make it shorter or break up the contract into more tradeable parts.

Oubre and Yabu would not need to be resigned either. They have a use in this league and it’s not for a team stuck in Park. Grimes on the other hand is someone we could use. Him coming back would create a very small starting lineup with Maxey and McCain, but talent is talent and this teams needs anything it can get.

We would still be looking at a rough cap situation. Grimes could possibly put us over the 1st apron, but not using the non-taxpayer MLE would still allow us to operate, just with minimum contracts and trades (if there is anyone to trade).

(brace yourselves)

The team would not be looking to tank, at least not at first, but it would certainly not be a contender. The Sixers would be positioning itself to get younger and develop talent. Unfortunately, this might mean (gulp) trading Tyrese Maxey. Before you come at me with pitchforks, be realistic. A useless Joel Embiid is a shackle on this roster. He would become an immovable black hole on the salary cap that Maxey could never drag to contender status. I don’t think anyone could. Maxey’s value could get us not only draft picks, but salary relief as well. The team could bottom out next season and really try to rebuild. The team as we know it would be dead, but it might be dead already.

Hello darkness our old friend.