Philly Front Office

Jim Bowden of The Athletic just came out with contract predictions for the top free agents and even though I think all of his numbers were pretty high and his salary comps were ridiculous, it got me thinking of what our current under contract Phillies would get on the open market. I don’t mean rookies or small potatoes contracts or even the ones that either just expired or are down to their last year, but the big free agents of yesteryear if they hit the market right now. Would we give them the same dollars they have left?

Bryce Harper

• Current Deal: 13/$330m signed in 2019, $25.4m per year
• Remaining: 6/$153m
• Age: 33 years old
• Overview: Harper is getting all the attention right now thanks to a Dave Dombrowski press conference and WIP rage bait. Over his career with the Phillies he has won an MVP, taken the team to the playoffs 4 straight years, and is the unquestioned face of the team. He is also still a marketable star in the league who may end up hitting his 500th HR before the end of his current deal. He had a rough playoffs and a comparatively down season, but he was still the 2nd best hitter on the team.
• Open Market: What made me bring up the Jim Bowden article was the 6/$182m prediction for Pete Alonso, a fellow 1st baseman. Alonso is 2 years younger, had a slightly better season at the plate¹, but is a considerably worse fielder. Harper has him on the star power and positional versatility though considering Alonso probably shouldn’t even be in the field anymore and Harper was nominated for a Gold Glove. You could make a decent argument for each for who gets the higher contract. Somehow Harper’s initial deal is aging gracefully and is probably right on target for the deal you’d give him this winter if you had to.

6 Years Ago: The Phillies Sign Bryce Harper

Trea Turner

• Current Deal: 11/$300m signed in 2023, $27.27m per year
• Remaining: 8/$218.16m
• Age: 32 years old
• Overview: Turner just had his best season as a Phillie by winning a batting title, improving in the field, and racking up 5.5 WAR in 141 games. What looked like a slowly worsening deal last year is right back up to the value we hoped for as of today. His ability to stay at SS is huge.
• Open Market: This is not the winter of the shortstop like it was when Turner hit free agency along with Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa. The only real comparisons are Bo Bichette and 3rd baseman Alex Bregman. Bichette doesn’t have nearly the track record that Turner had and Bowden expects him to get considerably less. Bregman on the other hand will be 32 and coming off another solid season, not unlike Turner who plays the harder position. He has Bregman pegged for 6/$182m (do some work man, that’s the same as Alonso), roughly $30m per year. Just by the math, Turner is worth more than Bregman. Not saying you would want the Phillies to pay this, but he would probably get around $35m per using Bowden’s math. That’s 6/$210m. 8 more years of Turner looks better now than it did at any other point in this contract, but the $27m AAV is a very good number. Knowing the Phillies and how they did the original deal, 8/$218m is probably a deal they would want to make.

Zack Wheeler

• Current Deal: 3/$126m signed in 2025, $42m per year
• Remaining: 2/$84m
• Age: 35 years old
• Overview: Wheeler was having a 95% Wheeler season this year and destined for another Top-3 Cy Young finish when he was diagnosed with a blood clot and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He is expected to recover in time to pitch most of next season. He is also considered the foremost playoff pitcher in the sport.
• Open Market: There is no one out there like Zack Wheeler. Probably the closest comps you are going to find are the 3/$130m deal signed by Max Scherzer when he was 37 and the 2/$87m deal signed by a 40-year-old Justin Verlander. Verlander was coming off a 5.6 WAR Cy Young season while Scherzer had 6.1 WAR and a 3rd place finish. Wheeler was the runner up with 6 WAR last year and was probably going to duplicate that this year. Considering Wheeler is about the same but younger than both of them, getting a contract like theirs might be considered on the cheap, except for the injury part. All in all that 2/$84m seems either just right or a little light depending on the medicals.

Aaron Nola

• Current Deal: 7/$172m sign in 2024, $24.5m per year
• Remaining: 5/$122.85m
• Age: 32 years old
• Overview: Nola had been a reliable but annoying pitcher for the Phillies through his 9 years with the team before signing his extension. The extension itself was fueled by a late season resurgence in 2023 that the Phillies hoped would continue. While 2024 was a solid return to form, 2025 was anything but. Outside of a solid 2 inning stint in the playoffs, the regular season was a total disaster that saw Nola hit the IL for only the 3rd time in his career.
• Open Market: For some reason there can only be two completely opposed camps on Aaron Nola. He has bitter defenders who have now pivoted to their last sacred ground, that his extension was a good deal when it was signed. The other side are the ones who didn’t want him to come back. What we have now is a bad contract and a hole in the rotation. Hopefully the tide shifts, but Nola’s contract would look a lot nicer in Ranger Suarez’s bank account. After all, Ranger Suarez he is not. He’s not Zac Gallen or Michael King either. There is a gap in the market this year between the older reliable types like Merrill Kelly and Chris Bassett and their younger counterparts. Last year we saw Sean Manaea get 3/$75m and Luis Severino get 3/$67m. I can’t tell if they are too high or too low. What I do know is that 5/$122m is right out and that largest possible deal he could see is something like the 1 year, $25m deal Jordan Montgomery signed with the Diamondbacks (that went horribly).

Cristopher Sanchez

• Current Deal: 4/$22.5m + 1/$14m team option + 1/$15m team option + Cy Young escalators, $5.625m per year for luxury tax purposes
• Remaining: 5/$48.5m
• Age: 29 years old
• Overview: When Zack Wheeler went down, Cris Sanchez stepped into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. He will likely finish runner up for Cy Young this year and mixes upper 90s heat with maybe the best change up in the sport. The former challenge trade with the Rays has improved every year until hitting undisputed elite status in 2025.
• Open Market: So far, I think it’s fair to say we have 3 pushes and a loss. Let’s even things out with Mr. Sanchez. He is signed at a Bravesian discount that is probably up there with Ronald Acuna as the best contract in baseball. What would he be worth right now? The absolute top of the market. He is a durable and ascending 29-year-old ace. That’s 3 years younger than Framber Valdez and a year younger than Ranger. Blake Snell was more accomplished getting his 5/$182m deal at 32, but was also considered more volatile. Max Fried signed for 8/$218m at 30 but had a better track record (Fried’s deal looks crazier than it is considering the years. Sanchez probably gets somewhere in the middle $30m over 6 years. This could be a lazy comparison though as its not hard to imagine him getting much more.

All in all, the Phillies current big deals have aged pretty well. Obviously, this does not include the Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto contracts which aged from very well to ok or Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker which were objectively bad deals, but other than Nola, all are of solid value right now with Cris Sanchez being the steal of steals.

1. It’s closer than you think considering Alonso played 30 more games…but that in itself is a nod for Alonso. He never misses time. ↩︎