UPDATE: Brad Keller is now looking to miss all of this season and possibly all of 2027 too. The need for a releiver may change the calculus below.
The Phillies payroll is a touchy subject, almost like the baseball equivalent of evaluating Jalen Hurts. The Phillies used to be cheap, like really cheap. It got to the point where Scott Rolen fought with ownership, not just about his own salary but because the team wouldn’t spend to upgrade the roster. Then they started spending…and spending…and spending. Now the Phillies have the third highest cash outlay in the sport and are somehow still seen as cheap. Even though opinion doesn’t match reality, I still get it!
Who Owns the Phillies?
John Middleton is the principle owner of the team at somewhere around 48%. According to Forbes, he is worth around $4.3b. This is mostly from his family’s tobacco business which he sold around 20 years ago for nearly $3b in cash. The company started in Philadelphia and had been around for around 150 years.
The team had been owned primarily by the Giles, Montgomery, and Buck families for years, but they have been mostly divested at this point with Montgomery down to 1% and the Bucks down to around 33%. Part of that divestiture brought in a guy named Stanley Middleman. He’s a real estate tycoon whose net worth is anywhere between $200m and $1.5b. It’s kind of strange that I can’t pin it down, but considering he paid around $455m for his 16% stake, let’s assume he is closer to the $1b mark. Middleman went to school at Temple and has lived in South Jersey for at least the last 15 years.
The Money
Also according to Forbes, this team made $539m in revenue last year while paying $317m in salary and benefits. They calculated this to be a $52m loss on the year. Granted, MLB teams are notorious for not opening their books so this is based mostly on estimates and public info on broadcast deals and sponsorships. I think it’s safe to assume the Phillies broke close to even on the season. There certainly wasn’t some huge Scrooge McDuck style money fight at the end of the season with all of their profit. That’s why you see ads EVERYWHERE in Citizen’s Bank Park. Assume every dollar they spend from here on out is a loss and comes out of ownership’s pocket.
Right now, the team has a payroll of around $314m. Because of the Competitive Balance Tax, they owe an extra $10m because they are over the first CBT level, $12.4m from the second level, $19m from the third level, and another $11.4m from the 4th level so far. In total, that’s an extra $53m. Every dollar spent from here on gets taxed at 110%. This is right around the tax bill from last year and looks to be pretty close to last year’s net loss.
https://phillyfrontoffice.com/phillies-contracts-2025-27/
The Budget
The Phillies went from spending $262m in 2023 to $279m in 2024 then ballooned to $370m last year. We are slightly under that amount now, but realistically how much more than that are they going to spend?
The reason I went into ownership stakes and bios above is so you know that this ownership group is local and not part of a conglomerate. They are real people. Real people, even when they want something, don’t want to lose too much money doing it. However, they can be handled. I have been critical of Dave Dombrowski quite a bit over the last year, but one thing he is VERY good at is getting billionaires to spend their money, especially John Middleton. There is a limit though.
Coming into this season, there was clearly a budget even though there is no salary cap. That’s where the Dombo “content” line came from. Ownership clearly told him that he couldn’t go over last year’s payroll of $315m and he had to own that. Still, they almost signed Bo Bichette at a number that would have left that number behind (if you include JT coming back as a given). Two years earlier, they were ready to blow the bank for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Dave knows how to get the money if he needs it.
All mid-season trades are pro-rated for the player’s actual salary, so not including signing bonuses.1 Someone like Tarik Skubal is being paid $32m this year but by the time the Trade Deadline comes around, he will only have about $10m left on his deal. That’s what the Phillies will take on plus an extra $11m in taxes. Ownership will not shell out this extra money for just anyone.
What Happens?
Last year, the Phillies added Dave Robertson for around $6m, Jhoan Duran for just over $1m, and Harrison Bader for $2m. That $9m ended up costing close to $19m in total. This year the Phillies are already at last year’s post deadline payroll and Dave will be asking for even more. Does this make one big move more likely or more like last year’s smaller ones?
Ownership will sign off on a deal like Skubal because he moves the needle. That’s what we are looking for here, a move that will justify spending by visibly improving the team. For bigger contracts, this means getting creative. Dave could end up paying more than you’d expect in prospects in order for the other team to pay down salary. Don’t be surprised if a player like Jose Alvarado or Edmundo Sosa gets dealt just to offload their contracts. More likely, the Phillies will be looking for Brandon Marsh types; young, flawed players that they think can help to an extent now and develop in the future.
What we are not going to be doing is picking up middle class salary. For example, any of the vets the Giants are peddling. Matt Chapman, Robbie Ray, and Jung Hoo Lee may sound good, but they all have bloated salaries for their solid but unspectacular production. Luis Arraez on the other hand would only cost around $3.5m. Right handed outfielder Heliot Ramos? He’s more likely due to his minimum salary. We are not buying other teams out of their problems.
The budget is very tight, but not impossible to finesse. Unless they land a whale, don’t expect too much in terms of veteran help. While other buyers may be able to splurge, we are looking for deals unless it is EXACTLY what we want.
- This is what made the Leo Carlsson signing bonus laden offer sheet by the Flyers so cruel. The Ducks can’t trade him even if they wanted to without eating nearly his entire compensation every year ↩︎
Contracts: Spotrac
Money: Forbes
Photo: Cherry Pinstripes
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