Players who come from Japan and Korea are not simply free agents (for the most part). Instead, they are subject to a Posting System agreed upon by MLB and their own professional leagues. Here’s a refresh on the system followed by this year’s crop of talent.
Posting Rules
Japanese players are granted international free agency after 9 years of service time. If they are under 9 years, their teams can agree to “post” them to MLB. Once posted, players have 45 days to sign with an MLB team or go back to their team in Japan. If they are signed, the MLB club owes a posting fee to the original Japanese club. This amount is not subject to the International Bonus Pool.1 The posting fee is calculated as follows:
- $25m or less – 20% of total value
- $25m to $50m – 20% up to $25m in value then 17.5% on the rest up to $50m
- More than $50m – Same as above but 15% on everything more than $50m
- Bonuses are subject to a supplemental fee of 15% if earned
The Korean posting system is slightly different. Instead of a 45-day window, a player must sign in 30 days. The posting fees are the same. However, unlike in Japan, a KBO team can only post one player per offseason.
Important note, the signing window pauses if and when there is a work stoppage.
Projecting Contracts
Evaluating Japanese and Korean talent is always something of a crapshoot with certain can’t miss talent not panning out (Hideki Irabu) while others far exceed their expectations (Ichiro). You just don’t know how players are going to adjust to a different league and a different culture. For this reason, with the exception of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, contracts have traditionally fallen in the lucrative but not crazy category (under $20m per season). The largest recent hitter contract was Masataka Yoshida when he signed with the Red Sox for 5/$90m in 2022. He has not panned out. This probably gave team pause when it came to Munetaka Murakami last year, getting only a 2/$34m deal with the White Sox (though it is in the same ballpark for AAV). For these reasons, projections of Teruaki Sato getting a $200m contract seem crazy to me. 5/$100m would probably be his cieling.
Talent
Teruaki Sato – Corner Outfield/3rd Base – 28
Sato is the big name this offseason. Likely winning back-to-back MVP awards and the NPB Triple Crown has that effect on one’s reputation. He will no doubt get the biggest contract this cycle with some evaluators believing he will get over $100m.
Sato was a good but not great player in his early 20s, but took off during the 2025 season at age 25. In two seasons, he has hit 79 HRs while hitting near .300 with a near .950 OPS. The crazy part of these numbers though is how they compare to the rest of the league. Offense is WAY down in Japan with the whole league at a .651 OPS. Only 2 other players lugged more than .500 and Sato was at .609. Only 7 players had an OPS higher than .775, but Sato was at .991. He is basically a standard deviation better than any other hitter in Japan.
Despite the glow above, Sato isn’t perfect. In fact, the big scouting problem is that he strikes out, a lot. While Munetaka Murakami had a similar profile, Murakami also had more power and walked more. With all the hits also came around 330 Ks in 2 seasons. The problem is apparently chasing balls out of the strike zone. If you are a Phillies fan, this is especially worrisome.
Sato’s team, the Hanshin Tigers, have already agreed to post him.
Kaima Taira – Reliever/Starter – 27
At 5’8 and 225 pounds, Taira has no business being as good as he is. The “Fire Hydrant” can hit 100 and has been hucking sub 2 ERAs for 6 years now. Two of those seasons were 150 inning workloads as a starter too. There hasn’t been any talk of having some incredible pitch like the Matsusaka “Gyro Ball” or the Kodai Senga “Ghost Fork” but Taira apparently has an 8 pitch arsenal, with all good enough to fool hitters. How that translates is anyone’s guess.
The real question is whether teams see him as a starter or a closer. With players coming from Japan, MLB teams are not looking to experiment. They want to make the transition as easy as possible. Being 5’8 does not usually translate to a heavy starter workload either. We don’t know what he wants and how it will affect the offers he receives. If he wants the guarantee of starting, it could mean a different set of suitors. The Phillies for example would love him in the bullpen but don’t have any room for him as a starter.
It is being reported that Taira will be posted by the Seibu Lions.
Hiroto Saiki – Starting Pitcher – 28
Saiki is the complete opposite of Taira at 6’2 and 175 pounds. There’s no doubt the righty is a starter though as he’s eclipsed 150 innings in each of the last 3 seasons for the Hanshin Tigers.2 Over those 3 seasons, his ERA has hovered around 2 with a 5:1 K/BB ratio.
Saiki has a mid 90s fastball, but gas isn’t his calling card. It’s control. He averaged a little over 1 walk per start this past season. That and his splitter are his claims to fame.
It isn’t fair because they are different people, but Saiki is going to be compared to Tatsuya Imai, the Japanese pitcher who signed with the Astros last year. Saiki is taller, but they have similar profiles. Imai had a rough first season in the US plagued by injuries and too many walks. We’ll see if Saiki signs a short, option filled deal like Imai.
Saiki wanted to be posted last season but the Hanshin Tigers refused. It is expected that they will relent this season though Saiki will be coming off a less impressive year.
Hiromi Itoh – Starting Pitcher – 29
Itoh is another short right hander, but unlike Taira, there is no question that he is a starter having thrown 150+ innings each of the last 6 years. What you can glean from that is that he’s durable, including nearly 200 innings in 27 starts in 2025.
Itoh has a mid-90s fastball but compliments it with a low 90s forkball as his out pitch. From there, he apparently throws 8 OTHER PITCHES!!! What the hell is that? You would have to imagine that MLB pitching coaches will try to refine that assortment a little bit.
What stinks for Itoh is that the Nippon Ham-Fighters didn’t post him last year. He was still good this past season, but not to the level of his 2025, which was his best. The worry is that as he hits the second half of his career those numbers are going in the wrong direction. Further, while hitting numbers for someone like Sato’s is crazy considering the depressed offense in Japan, an ERA in the 3s isn’t nearly as impressive as the 1s and 2s posted by the guys above.
There is no word on whether Itoh will be posted.
Photo: 大阪阪神を愛する隊員, CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons (altered with AI)
- To sign a big money posted deal, the player must be at least 25 years old. If not, they are subject to the MLB International Bonus pool. This was how Roki Sasaki ended up without a bidding war in 2024 ↩︎
- Keep in mind that the NPB season is around 20 games shorter than MLB ↩︎
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